War Business

TomasM

TomasM

Community Member
MBTI
INFJ
The administration took on more debt than everyone expected. Trump didn’t stop the war in Ukraine with Russia. Now, we are seeing a push into Iran and bombs being dropped on Tel Aviv.

Today, I see the crypto markets dropping for over a week and the military stocks are rising. The business of war now appears to be in full swing and this would mark the cap of the fourth turning.

China is funding Iran who has been funding the Hoothies. Russia has come out in defense of Iran and threatened nuclear attacks. War is big business and I suspect everyone who has big money (and power) are looking to increase their assets.

My heart sinks that the same story repeats continually across history.
 
Looks like we're kindred spirits after all.

I feel your pain, brother.
 
Things to watch out for include the closure of strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern retalliation on American Assets. A recurrence of a Sep11-esque retaliation is not far off the horizon. if that strait is closed, the flow of trade goods around the world will be disrupted to the equivalent of a stroke in a human body. The chaos that will come after that will hurt all of us, bombs or no bombs.

China and Russia support Iran indirectly but have called for de-escalation until the U.S dabbled in without proxy. That gives RusChin grounds to get really involved. Middle Eastern countries already have ears up. There is very little room to look back at this point.

Meanwhile, within the US people are still debating on the constitutionality of the US involvement. That conversation will boil over once the prices of goods keep going higher, which they will.

Doomsday preppers are well advised at this juncture.
 
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Anyone who launches a nuke will see their administration get disassembled within 24 hours. ...and they know it. Russia and China like to bluff their hand, while NATO holds all the cards. They're gonna play more or less "nice" irrespective of how much they like it.
 
...the ruling class I'm most concerned about is the USA. They have us dressed up a little prettier, but we are no less commodities, and they are no less evil.
 
Rift Zone said:
Anyone who launches a nuke will see their administration get disassembled within 24 hours. ...and they know it. Russia and China like to bluff their hand, while NATO holds all the cards. They're gonna play more or less "nice" irrespective of how much they like it.
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Never underestimate that niceness. Iranian officials have reportedly flown to Russia, likely to solidify more frontal non-proxy support.

This was a huge miscalculation on the part of the US, which is now more vulnerable.
 
mintoots said:
Never underestimate that niceness. Iranian officials have reportedly flown to Russia, likely to solidify more frontal non-proxy support.

This was a huge miscalculation on the part of the US, which is now more vulnerable.
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Yea, everyone is more vulnerable now. I'm not saying it's not cause for concern. I do, however, feel as though Russia, China, and Iran are not the only entities who should not be provoked. Considering that, I do assume the situation is more stable than it could easily outwardly appear.
 
Rift Zone said:
Yea, everyone is more vulnerable now. I'm not saying it's not cause for concern. I do, however, feel as though Russia, China, and Iran are not the only entities who should not be provoked. Considering that, I do assume the situation is more stable than it could easily outwardly appear.
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Qatar and Pakistan have already issued statements so has Russia and China. Qatar is not averse to retaliation. Iran, Russia, and China have similar tones: they will retaliate if need be. For Iran that is retaliation asap whether economically or militarily, they have plenty of options.

It's far more volatile than mainstream news cycles make it out to be.
 
NATO, without the US, would stomp all of the above.

US alone, would stomp a coordinated effort from all the above, decisively.

I'm in California. Even if this is world war III. All I'm gonna see of it is on tv.

The good ol boys around here are fond of the phrase, "fuck around and find out."
If they fuck around... they're gonna find out
how quickly we'll replace their regime. --it's the US's favorite international game. ...give us a reason. please.
 
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Russia wouldn't lift a finger against the US and as for non-proxy support, their army is currently engaged in conquering a new trench in eastern Ukraine. China will keep well out of it (they've got a lot of sense, and Taiwan is their issue).

What the arab states want is stability, the same as everyone wants, and they'll know that a neutered (or changed) regime in Iran will go a long way towards that.

The only crew who don't want stability and have been trying to upset it for decades are the Iran regime, and they're just going to fire a few missiles and shake their Korans in the air to save face, then they'll tow the line. Closing the Straits will serve to isolate them further, assuming the west would let them do it. Perhaps packing the area with naval assets would discourage them without actual confrontation.

I feel more at risk from tourist car drivers on my local roads, tbh.

Also noteworthy in recent days is that neutral analysts are mentioning regime change in less derisory tones.
 
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This is beyond regime change or religion. This is about saving the petrodollar and the US economy. This is about saving empires.

The US showed its deck of cards too soon. Rather than showing its strength, it is only showing its willingness to fight to the death. That is weakness. It's close to a hostage crisis.
 
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I personally find the justification for this bombing reasonable. This is not boots on the ground kinda deal. I would oppose US sending military to Iran, but I am quite sure that will not happen.

Iran has limited options. They threatened 10+ times in the last 20 years with closing the strait of Hormuz, but they cannot do it nor does it benefit them or they "allies" (mainly China). Russia and China will also not get dragged into this in any shape or form besides sending supportive messages and asking for peace.

My best bet is that it will soon de-escalate.
Insert "nothing ever happens" meme.
 
philostam said:
I personally find the justification for this bombing reasonable. This is not boots on the ground kinda deal. I would oppose US sending military to Iran, but I am quite sure that will not happen.

Iran has limited options. They threatened 10+ times in the last 20 years with closing the strait of Hormuz, but they cannot do it nor does it benefit them or they "allies" (mainly China). Russia and China will also not get dragged into this in any shape or form besides sending supportive messages and asking for peace.

My best bet is that it will soon de-escalate.
Insert "nothing ever happens" meme.
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The parliament of the Islamic Republic of Iran has already approved it and forwarded it to the National Security Council for a final decision. Assuming they won't partially or fully close the strait, they will still want to retaliate one way or another. They are already bombing Israel, chances of bombing US assets are there. The fact that it's the US demanding to Iran not to retaliate is a bit funny. It's like a little kid throwing the first punch and demanding the opponent doesn't punch back. It will. Whether the retaliation is graceful or crude, we have yet to see.

Do not forget why September 11/Twin Towers happened. It was not just about religion.
 
mintoots said:
The parliament of the Islamic Republic of Iran has already approved it and forwarded it to the National Security Council for a final decision. Assuming they won't partially or fully close the strait, they will still want to retaliate one way or another. They are already bombing Israel, chances of bombing US assets are there. The fact that it's the US demanding to Iran not to retaliate is a bit funny. It's like a little kid throwing the first punch and demanding the opponent doesn't punch back. It will. Whether the retaliation is graceful or crude, we have yet to see.

Do not forget why September 11/Twin Towers happened. It was not just about religion.
Click to expand...

All I am saying is...I don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons. They are a terrible, radical regime. If this attack was successful in preventing/delaying them, then I am happy.

Who threw the first punch is also questionable. We could trace the escalations back a long way. Also this is not two equally sized little kids throwing punches. Iran is a much weaker, smaller kid, and escalating will not be in their interest. Maybe US will allow them to save face with some small, insignificant victory and that's it.

Iran has no escalation dominance.
 
News just in...

MUTED OIL REACTION SUGGESTS HORMUZ BLOCKADE UNLIKELY

Oil prices rose only slightly after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, reflecting market belief that a Strait of Hormuz blockade is unlikely.

Brent and WTI crude rose about 1%, with analysts calling the limited reaction “surprising.” Despite Iran’s threats, experts say Tehran is unlikely to block the strait due to its heavy reliance on oil exports to China.

Goldman Sachs and others highlight strong U.S. and Chinese incentives to avoid major disruptions. The strikes are seen as a one-time event, with no sign of wider U.S. military involvement.

Alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE could reroute some oil, though not all, and they remain vulnerable to attacks.

Overall, high global oil inventories and increased OPEC+ production suggest any price spikes would be short-lived—similar to past regional conflicts.
 
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philostam said:
News just in...

MUTED OIL REACTION SUGGESTS HORMUZ BLOCKADE UNLIKELY

Oil prices rose only slightly after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, reflecting market belief that a Strait of Hormuz blockade is unlikely.

Brent and WTI crude rose about 1%, with analysts calling the limited reaction “surprising.” Despite Iran’s threats, experts say Tehran is unlikely to block the strait due to its heavy reliance on oil exports to China.

Goldman Sachs and others highlight strong U.S. and Chinese incentives to avoid major disruptions. The strikes are seen as a one-time event, with no sign of wider U.S. military involvement.

Alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE could reroute some oil, though not all, and they remain vulnerable to attacks.

Overall, high global oil inventories and increased OPEC+ production suggest any price spikes would be short-lived—similar to past regional conflicts.
Click to expand...
This is an analytical opinion, not news.

I highly doubt this is about Iran and Iran alone. I agree that Iran will be pragmatic and carefully calculating in their next move, but it will not succumb that easily.

Attacking Iran on the guise of a nuclear weapon is not the ultimate reason for these attacks. One would wonder why North Korea and Pakistan have not been attacked despite having been nuclear states for so long. This is about trade control slipping through US dominance, and forced allegiances.

Edit:
3 min ago:
1000018051.webp
www.usatoday.com

Explosions reported near US military base in Qatar after Iran vows payback: Live updates

The reports of explosions come as the world was braced for retaliation for the U.S. strikes on 3 of Iran's nuclear facilities.
www.usatoday.com
 
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mintoots said:
This is an analytical opinion, not news.

I highly doubt this is about Iran and Iran alone. I agree that Iran will be pragmatic and carefully calculating in their next move, but it will not succumb that easily.

Attacking Iran on the guise of a nuclear weapon is not the ultimate reason for these attacks. One would wonder why North Korea and Pakistan have not been attacked despite having been nuclear states for so long. This is about trade control slipping through US dominance, and forced allegiances.
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One of the main reasons I made this thread was that NF’s and NT’s have incredible insight through intuition. Each of us can see pieces of the puzzle and collectively the entire picture starts to become clear.

Rarely is the reason for bombing someone or something the reason we are told - there’s almost always an underlying motivation that is working behind the scenes.

I personally believe there was a reason for installing Israel as a nation state in the Middle East and the efforts to support it continually plays into that reason. To me the answers come from recognizing the people of power that installed that government. Though there may be strategy and tactics used as time progresses, it all eventually goes back to the initial reason for the installment.

Personally, I want the bombing and killing to stop but I have to recognize that my idealism can be naive and is unlikely to ever be a practical expectation. Acceptance is a highly valuable personal attribute that I believe is critical to success yet this is an aspect [in our world] I struggle to accept.
 
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