World after Corona virus

Pretty much.

The problem is that during 1-2 years of recession governments can increase their national debt by 50% or more (especially for Eurozone countries). It takes years/decades of growth to reverse that. I at least hope that we will not be bailling out banks now.

For example, my country Slovenia had a debt/GDP ratio around 30% pre 2008. By 2014 it was 80%. In last 5 years it barely recovered back to 70%.

 

And this is USA debt/GDP ratio. It increased sharply post 2008 and it hasn't really gone down much during years of "growth".

 

True. Its partially down to many counries not investing in big projects.

Roadways, airports, power stations, housing, government buildings, hospitals, libraries etc.

These should be built, not closed during a period of recovery. The reverse of what should have been happening was done in the name of Austerity.

That said, a level of Austerity following a period of overspending is often necessary. Cutting unnecessary luxury projects (such as Garden Bridges across the Thames) do need to be cut. Department effeciency increased etc.

But big construction projects that will feed into the economy by providing jobs and bring more business in the future, providing a return a few years down the line is essential.

Borrowing isn't bad if the project give a return, infact that is the reason to borrow.

Its always why unrestricted Socialism doesn't work because borrowing to, say, give benefits to people who won't return to work (because why bother if the state pays for you, yes this does happen, I've spent time with people who play up their suffering to get greater benefits, people are assholes) or pay for vanity projects in the name of appeasing a voting block is also bad because when the debts come due you haven't generated any material value as a result.

Too much Austerity is bad because the Private Sector doesn't recover strongly. Equally too much Spending without Investment is just as bad because the Public Sector takes unnecessary burden during good times.

 

Of course, Keynes showed that fiscal policy is more effective during recessions than monetary policy. You can cut interest rates to 0 but you won't get the boost in investment you want - because no one wants to invest when there's a recession. QE can be effective though, not least because it can create anticipation of future Inflation.

It doesn't necessarily need to be infrastructure projects, although USA would need that.

But yes, most developed countries will not grow fast enough post recession to reverse the national debt fast. For example, if you grow 2% per year and your budget deficit is 0 (government spends as much as it collects), the debt/gdp ratio will improve 2% per year. There's more calculations that go into it (like interest rates on government bonds) but I forgot about it now. Would need to swipe the dust from my macroeconomics textbook.

 

I think I am of the minority that thinks the world will stay the same.
Change doesn't happen unless people change, and I don't see many being radically changed by this world event.
We're doing much of the same; binge watching, binge eating, workaholics from home. Still shopping - online.
Struggling to connect with people we share a home with: some couples are going crazy because they are in each other's face all day. Some parents are struggling to spend time with the kids cause they were always in daycare or school before.
I think the world will go back to what it was once this is over. There was no incentive to change things before, and being locked in is not much of an incentive to change, to be honest.
Maybe many people will become germaphobes and social distance even more.

I would like nothing more than to be wrong, and witness people be profoundly changed by this experience by having evaluated what truly matters in life.

 

How much things change after this is over depends upon how complacent society is in general over what happened. Good journalists and politicians won't let us just brush it all aside, but they're becoming fewer and fewer as they are barraged with slander and labels by those who just want to return to their "good old days".

From what I've seen the public is comprised of sheep who don't want to think.

 

Indeed. Goes back to my mantra we need to educate the populace and isolate and ostracise the extremists who seek to divide and refuse to compromise for the greater good.

Compromising doesn't mean getting the other guy to accept all your ideas. Its finding an idea no one really likes but everyone can live with. Sadly we living in an 'All Or Nothing' world these days.

 

Its why we need to work hard to combat the lies in real life.

Its going to be HARD work.

But if with invest in scienc ebased rational arguments, they can call us wrong but lies don't deny reality.

There will be other uniting moments. This may not be one but there will be others.

An alien invasion might be good. We unite best when we have a common enemy to fight.

 

Perhaps a giant interdimensional squid?

 

I always did think Ozymandias had the right idea.

 

World won't get more dystopian. In fact, everyone except the UK and the US seem to be business as usual.

You'll see national differences. US, UK and other far right nations will see an increase in fascism, far right ideologies and wealth hoarding but only temporarily because to the younger people of America, it is as good as a failed state. THere's not just class differences in this country but extreme ageism as well especially with regards to the oppression of the millennials who have been used as nothing more than a body count for boomer wars and victims of massive wealth hoarding.

Meanwhile the more left-leaning countries that did an amazing job of controlling the virus with minimal impact on people's lives will remain as they are because now they know that far right ideologies don't work to save people while left leaning policies do.

I suspect that within 50 years once there are no boomer voters left, America and the UK will start moving to the left as well.

 

The timing on this presidency could not have been worse. Or, better said, this presidency could not have been worse.

It'll be far less than 50 years before the boomers are out of the picture as an influence on elections. It will be within 30, figuring that the youngest boomers are currently 55. Average lifespan for the American male is about 76, for females it is 81.

 

I think people over estimate the boomer effect as well.

As we saw in the last UK election, the Tories won with nearly 50% of the popular vote. Labour shrank to the 20s.

That doesn't happen with Boomers alone.

I think people hate to admit it but the average person is more right wing than people admit. The average UK/US citizen is centre or centre/right on the spectrum, and that will continue.

People will move further left on social policies but on economic policies it will stay centre or centre/right. That's been the trend for the past 50/100 years and I don't see that changing.

People just want a job, morgages to buy a house and maybe enough spare of a holiday or 2 a year. Give the majority that and people are content.

 

This is true. I've done a lot of indepth research into the phenomena ... even American youth who tend to believe in social welfare are largely centrist (at most center left leaning but not leftist).

Bernie would be a centrist in most of Europe and would struggle to get the leftist vote there as well. The fact that Americans were able to brand a centrist/moderate Bernie as a "leftist" is very damaging for any leftist here because we have no representation at all. With his loss, "leftism" here is essentially deader than I thought even a few months ago.

Ergo why I'm putting a fairly arbitrary 50 year number on my prediction. I think Millennials would actually have to be running things themselves in order for the paradigm shift to start to happen. But it remains to be seen. It is possible though that leftism in America could skip the entire millennial cohort entirely and might happen with Gen Z.

 

This is untrue. Bernie is HEAVILY leftist, and I speak as a European.

His view of banning all private healthcare, this is more extreme than the Nordic Socialists. Even the UK with its free healthcare and NHS, and the Nordic countries of Norway, Sweden and Denmark allow free enterprise. They have private healthcare.

If Bernie had said "Free healthcare but we'll allow anyone to remain private if they want." He would have won a lot more support.

His all or nothing approach is what puts centerists off.

Also offering free healthcare to illegal immigrants - that was never going to be supported by the American people. It wouldn't work in Europe either.

 

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