World after Corona virus

[slant]

I posted about this in the other thread but I believe we are currently beginning to experience the next technological revolution.

If you're curious about what is going to happen over the next 20 years or so look into the come book "
The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives" by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler.

I think it's pretty accurate.

Essentially... The United States tech companies have wanted to automate a lot of things for the past decade but were never able to get public and government support for it.

China already has smart cities (surveillance capitalism) and United States is behind.

Pandemic presents the perfect opportunity to develop these areas in our country.

This is a fundamental cultural shift, similar to the shift that happened in our society when the industrial revolution happened. The way things changed back then, that level of dramatic changes in the very way our society runs, is happening right now.

I still believe it will take 20 years for it all to unroll but this is the beginning. And if the United States are too slow about it China will win the artificial intelligence war and have complete global economic control. Some argue that has already happened.

It doesn't really matter how or why the pandemic occurred; the results are the technological revolution finally have the means it needs to take off. Once is begun you can't put the genie back in. But you know everyone is uneasy with culture shifts; the younger generation adapts and if you don't get with the times you antiquate yourself

 

[ReasonEnduring]

I posted about this in the other thread but I believe we are currently beginning to experience the next technological revolution.

If you're curious about what is going to happen over the next 20 years or so look into the come book "
The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives" by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler.

I think it's pretty accurate.

Essentially... The United States tech companies have wanted to automate a lot of things for the past decade but were never able to get public and government support for it.

China already has smart cities (surveillance capitalism) and United States is behind.

Pandemic presents the perfect opportunity to develop these areas in our country.

This is a fundamental cultural shift, similar to the shift that happened in our society when the industrial revolution happened. The way things changed back then, that level of dramatic changes in the very way our society runs, is happening right now.

I still believe it will take 20 years for it all to unroll but this is the beginning. And if the United States are too slow about it China will win the artificial intelligence war and have complete global economic control. Some argue that has already happened.

It doesn't really matter how or why the pandemic occurred; the results are the technological revolution finally have the means it needs to take off. Once is begun you can't put the genie back in. But you know everyone is uneasy with culture shifts; the younger generation adapts and if you don't get with the times you antiquate yourself

China is also massively unstable though.

There is a reason why China is trying to Modernise Africa so that Africa becomes the new China for cheap goods.

Problem is with that plan is if you make the people richer they start wanting more freedoms.

China is going to either have to go full Authoritarian and deliberately keep enough of their people weak and poor, or they need to Democractise or Liberalise in some fashion and it will be a hilarious cluster fuck as a nation larger than the US tries to switch from a One Party State to something that vaguely looks like Freedom.

The Authoritarian route is far easier, especially with Modern technology, but the smarter and richer your people are, the easier it is to circumvent the control you have. Even on the internet.

The US can endure easier as a Democracy. I'd even say the US is more stable than the EU right now. The EU is just one significantly large crisis away from collapse and really needs some proper reforms. It does very well, and I respect the European project, but the US has been at the Federal game for several centuries longer than the EU has. The European Identity hasn't fixed yet the same way the American one has.

The only way the US falls away from the top over the next 50-100 years is if it chooses to.

China is a weird hybrid that can tear itself apart trying to be the next US. The EU can't decide if its a country or not. Russia is as Russia has been for decades.

If the US chooses be what it has always been - a Liberal, Free Thinking, Free Enterprise land, it can stay at the top until another Liberal, Free Thinking, Free Enterprise Land can legitametly push them from the throne.

Only if the US ceeds ground to

 

[ReasonEnduring]

I posted about this in the other thread but I believe we are currently beginning to experience the next technological revolution.

If you're curious about what is going to happen over the next 20 years or so look into the come book "
The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives" by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler.

I think it's pretty accurate.

Essentially... The United States tech companies have wanted to automate a lot of things for the past decade but were never able to get public and government support for it.

China already has smart cities (surveillance capitalism) and United States is behind.

Pandemic presents the perfect opportunity to develop these areas in our country.

This is a fundamental cultural shift, similar to the shift that happened in our society when the industrial revolution happened. The way things changed back then, that level of dramatic changes in the very way our society runs, is happening right now.

I still believe it will take 20 years for it all to unroll but this is the beginning. And if the United States are too slow about it China will win the artificial intelligence war and have complete global economic control. Some argue that has already happened.

It doesn't really matter how or why the pandemic occurred; the results are the technological revolution finally have the means it needs to take off. Once is begun you can't put the genie back in. But you know everyone is uneasy with culture shifts; the younger generation adapts and if you don't get with the times you antiquate yourself

Also China has proved with the Coronavirus that its government is untrustworthy and will roll back progress in the name of saving face.

That is bad for business.

As is the fact the UK had to reject 750 Chinese ventilators because they weren't fit for use.

China isn't the US yet, they still have a long way to go.

 

[SlowUpTake]

The Russians appear to be tossing Doctors who complain about the lack of material support in fighting the pandemic out windows. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ctor-plunges-coronavirus-hospital-window.html

 

[Vendrah]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/...rie-garrett.html?referringSource=articleShare

 

[philostam]

I think world will be a better place in 10 or 20 years. I have no idea how it will look technologically, but I predict it's gonna be much healthier financially.

Cental Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) are coming, which means that we'll eventually be able to eliminate the banking sector or at least replace the outdated fractional-reserve banking. Every legal citizen will have an account directly with the central bank. Citizens will routinely receive some sort of helicopter money directly from the central bank, be it in the form of UBI or something else. No more quantitative easing for the big banks that leads to asset price inflation.

Modern Monetary Theory will become mainstream and we'll stop the obsession with public debt. Hopefully we'll have a better model for inflation. Last 10 years proved that more printing doesn't lead to any actual inflation (only asset price inflation).

The only disappointed people will be the crypto bunch.

 

[dragulagu]

eliminate the banking sector

Banking sector says no. If anything this will be a dream for the banking sector as these guys are massively jumping into the crypto tech. Trace every transaction everyone
is making, risk calculation, asset estimation. Funsies.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/deut...gital-currency-will-replace-cash-in-long-term

The only disappointed people will be the crypto bunch.

 

[philostam]

Haha yeah, of course I don't expect big banks to go down without a fight. I'm no insider or a banker, and this whole thing is too complex to call. Probably by 2030 all central banks will have their digital currencies, but it will not replace fiat money. It will coexist for a few years or decades.

But if we eventually get it right, it'll be one of the greatest evolutions in the history of money&finance.

For crypto I don't care. It was designed to annoy central bankers, and the idea of apolitical money is never gonna happen. Yes, of course central banks may adopt some technology from crypto, but that's about it. Well at least how I see it.

I know that crypto is very impressive to tech people, which I'm not. But from the finance point of view, what problem is it trying to solve excactly? It seems like crypto bunch all believe that central banks and governments are useless, and that the world would be better off without them. I strongly disagree with that.

 

[dragulagu]

I know that crypto is very impressive to tech people, which I'm not. But from the finance point of view, what problem is it trying to solve excactly? It seems like crypto bunch all believe that central banks and governments are useless, and that the world would be better off without them. I strongly disagree with that.

Decentralisation, the ability of not being dependable on banking and current financial systems. That and money laundry off course.
Banks and Government are not useless, but they have shaped the world we are currently living in. So, wouldn't you think it would be a better world if they would not
have that power (moving or shutting down economies, investing in where they see fit in capital gain rather than overall growth)?

 

[philostam]

Decentralisation, the ability of not being dependable on banking and current financial systems. That and money laundry off course.
Banks and Government are not useless, but they have shaped the world we are currently living in. So, wouldn't you think it would be a better world if they would not
have that power (moving or shutting down economies, investing in where they see fit in capital gain rather than overall growth)?

Hmm. No, I don't think so. Banking sector could definitely be improved (and it has improved since 2008) but I think central banks do a pretty good job, and so do (some) governments.

If anything I'm for more government involvement and regulations.

The idea that the world would work better if we simply left it alone or to the 'market' or 'natural forces' doesn't appeal to me at all.

 

[dragulagu]

The idea that the world would work better if we simply left it alone or to the 'market' or 'natural forces' doesn't appeal to me at all.

Not left alone, it needs to be regulated differently. The general economy, I agree, should be left as is. But the roles of banks should diminish into a much less effective role. I'm not talking about the banking
entities themselves but rather the old structure behind it supporting these (talking about banking dynasties here).

 

[Vendrah]

I think world will be a better place in 10 or 20 years. I have no idea how it will look technologically, but I predict it's gonna be much healthier financially.

Cental Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) are coming, which means that we'll eventually be able to eliminate the banking sector or at least replace the outdated fractional-reserve banking. Every legal citizen will have an account directly with the central bank. Citizens will routinely receive some sort of helicopter money directly from the central bank, be it in the form of UBI or something else. No more quantitative easing for the big banks that leads to asset price inflation.

Modern Monetary Theory will become mainstream and we'll stop the obsession with public debt. Hopefully we'll have a better model for inflation. Last 10 years proved that more printing doesn't lead to any actual inflation (only asset price inflation).

The only disappointed people will be the crypto bunch.

I had good hopes when I started the thread, now Im just looking for a good rope, you know?
I think you are waayyy optimistic, I hope you are right but I don't think you will be.
Inequality had increased, the rich got even richer while I was hoping they would lose some money, there are more people throw on poverty, basically capitalism found its way to defend the super and ultra rich just again and it just sucks.

The empathy I ever hoped for never really came, people only show to be more careless... Well, I prefer to not even continue, but hope ya got it.

 

[MoonFlier]

I caught the NASA/space-x crew 1 mission docking the other night. In particular I was watching the three folk who've been on the space station all this time having been there since October of 2019, well before we saw this pandemic coming. They watched over earth from above while 1.34 million died below.

The faces of those onboard as they greeted their new roommates was a mix of pure elation and concern. Was the concern about work and the physical space in which they have, trying to stay out of each other's way? Or was it more attributed to concern about viruses being brought aboard? Obviously the team had quarantined together a good long time before heading off... but still.

For our futures, the worries will permeate our lives for years, about as long as it takes to ease off other shocks such as 9/11. Eventually society will just go back to the way it used to be, they want to feel as though they're protected from above. The biggest changes have to come through with legislation and technology. We have to build a future out for the LCD of folk to keep them safe from themselves.

 

[Sandie33]

What about latency with Covid? We know that chickenpox can do that ... what about Covid? Not particularly directed, just curious.

 

[philostam]

I had good hopes when I started the thread, now Im just looking for a good rope, you know?
I think you are waayyy optimistic, I hope you are right but I don't think you will be.
Inequality had increased, the rich got even richer while I was hoping they would lose some money, there are more people throw on poverty, basically capitalism found its way to defend the super and ultra rich just again and it just sucks.

The empathy I ever hoped for never really came, people only show to be more careless... Well, I prefer to not even continue, but hope ya got it.

I kinda agree but it's complicated. Inequality between countries is actually decreasing globally because of the rise of Asia and to some extent Africa. The gap between India and USA now is much smaller than 50 years ago.

Inequality within countries (especially USA) is increasing, yeah, but this has more to do with politics (tax avasion etc.) than capitalism per se.

I think all is not doomed, we just need better politicians and revamp in the monetary system/policies.

 

[philostam]

BTC has already reached $17,000-$18,000 per coin. Since almost 6 months ago, I speculated it will rise to somewhere in the range of $30,000 - $50,000 per coin, due to foreign and high investors losing faith in fiat currencies and the banks, especially after government COVID stimulus and rising inflation.

We'll see, we're still very far from 30.000 or 50.000.

I don't think central banks are gonna start hoarding bitcoin anytime soon lol. They're just moving from dollar denominated treasuries to gold.

I simply think bitcoin bunch are too emotionally attached to it, and this is never good. I would be more comfortable with bitcoin trading than investing. With trading you jump on trends, be it short or long, so you're not emotionally attached in one particular direction.

We're definitely at the long trend at the moment, but doesn't say anything about fundamentals. We know bitcoin is mostly just supply and demand driven.

 

[philostam]

@Maikl Jexocuha @dragulagu

I am officially joining the crypto bandwagon, lol. I still have my reservations, but now that BTC has passed 20k mark, it's just stupid to be stubborn and not to buy some. The upside is too big. I wanna be covered in case BTC really goes to 100k or even above, as some are predicting.

I was wrong, but thankfully there's still time to correct the mistake.

At what price did you two get it and do you hold any other currencies? Looks like all had massive 2020. Some of them grew like 600%.

Of course I see this just as a buy and hold defensive strategy. I won't invest any big money, since I still see it as a speculative investment. Maybe like 1500$ across 3 currencies (Bitcoin and 2 more, so 500$ each).

 

[philostam]

I got in at 2014, around that time, if I remember it was about $440/coin

I'm into nexo right now, too. I'm an official token holder and trader/investor now. It's great because you can hold some of your crypto long-term, establish a line of credit and get anywhere from 6%-12% interest earned on your crypto holdings. Investment in the nexo token yields 30% returns.

Wow, nice one. That's some tasty profit you must have made.

 

[dragulagu]

@Maikl Jexocuha @dragulagu

I am officially joining the crypto bandwagon, lol. I still have my reservations, but now that BTC has passed 20k mark, it's just stupid to be stubborn and not to buy some. The upside is too big. I wanna be covered in case BTC really goes to 100k or even above, as some are predicting.

I was wrong, but thankfully there's still time to correct the mistake.

At what price did you two get it and do you hold any other currencies? Looks like all had massive 2020. Some of them grew like 600%.

Of course I see this just as a buy and hold defensive strategy. I won't invest any big money, since I still see it as a speculative investment. Maybe like 1500$ across 3 currencies (Bitcoin and 2 more, so 500$ each).

I had Bitcoin years ago, sold it with a bit of profit but not as it is now. I currently invested in altcoins (XLR and Lumen, Ethereum), they usually go along the flow of Bitcoin. A general advice to give here is to not buy when it is peaking. But wait when it drops (the whole buy in the dip, sell at peak shebang).

What I do with crypto is just go with an investment baseline (eg. what you have invested), wait for a nice margin and then sell crypto into cash.

So let's say you have invested 1000$ in crypto (divide it into different coins); let it runs it flow, when it runs over let's say a 25% profit margin, eg. 1250$, you shave off 250$ worth of these coins and let that flow back as cash directly to you. Then let the rest of those coins flow further. If you make more profit, good. If it drops again, sell the coins and leave it to cash in your wallet (eg. you revert those back to 1000$ in dollars). Then wait for it dropping in their lowest and buy the coins again. Repeat.

I keep check with how much I cash I have returned from my initial investment. That return amount will be my risk budget. In other words, if I returned 250$ of my 1000$ investment then that means I am "safe" when my 1000$ investment in crypto drops to 750$.

The crypto market is a very volatile one, so it is not a long term investment strategy there, if you want that you go with regular stock strategies.
So use capital that you can miss, and enjoy the rapid flow it goes in.

To give you a couple general rules:

- Only use money you can miss, don't invest with any cash you would need.
- The flow of crypto is always up and down, with longer down periods and shorter up periods for a couple days to a couple weeks. Don't expect miracles.
- When it is peaking, you'll see a stagnation for a couple hours-days and then see the market value drop, don't be afraid to convert your crypto to cash then.
- The crypto market flows are continuous, crypto coin won't "suddenly" drop to 0, neither will it be a golden egg that turns your capital into 100x fold.
- You don't have the continuously have to follow the market trends, just set some price indicators (like bitcoin going over 20k for example) and follow it by daily basis.
- As always, sell at the peak, buy at the dip, don't give in to any hype because a lot of people (especially in crypto) invest based on emotion.
- Lastly, important, following up on the previous, this is a semi-regulated market, not something like actual stock market. This means that the big players can make big changes into the crypto flow, meaning you can see sudden spikes or drops in the flow. Do not panic sell or buy. Be smart and wait.
- And as an extra, it's a good exercise into pattern recognition, you'll intuitively after a while start recognising flows within the crypto market and are able to play on it. So
have fun doing so.

So understand the crypto market, understand how it flows and you'll have fun investing into it. Honestly I have no idea where crypto will go into the future. Because there's a lot happening in the world that has an impact on it. (Covid being a positive regulator for example for crypto, because of the insecure world economy).

Oh and you don't have to invest into bitcoin persé, it's still the "driving" crypto coin, but there's enough choices to go for. Just check their market history and what these coins go for, technologically wise.

 

[dragulagu]

@Maikl Jexocuha the above is my experience so far, curious how yours is, any difference to it, because you seem to have a different strategy? And what's your opinion on the current flow. I'm sceptical to bitcoin going over de 100k line, but I could imagine it going double its current value rate in the coming years.