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World after Corona virus

Discussion in 'News and Politics' started by Vendrah, Apr 2, 2020.

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  1. Vendrah

    Vendrah Regular Poster

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    One article was made almost two weeks ago with some experts (in different areas) telling what they think the world will be after Corona outbreak, which will be basically the world in 2021 or 2022 after the vaccine:

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/20/world-order-after-coroanvirus-pandemic/

    Opinions about what the world is going to be are incredibly mixed.
    In one side, there is hope that humanity will get better being with more solidarity with people thinking about the others.
    In the other side, some people say about mass poverty, increase of inequality, and etc..

    So, what are your opinions?
    Or post any articles about it.
     
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  2. Cornerstone

    Cornerstone Well-known member

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  3. Cornerstone

    Cornerstone Well-known member

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    I do have concerns about an increase in petit-authoritarianism. I used to be a lot more concerned about the New World Order, as a unilateral mindset more than a formal conspiracy, and I think this has potential to speed up many of the processes required for its overt manifestation.

    The loss of physical currency is one example of a seemingly sensible change which was already spreading before infection control concerns.

    The emergency laws enabling the breaking up of gatherings will be repealed but I don't think it is far-fetched to say that some extended powers will not be repealed fully.

    Overall, I've no doubt this kind of thing will bring out the best in many, many people. It is, that's undeniable. I expect that this will fortify them for what is to come.

    When it comes to individuals, I'm optimistic. Yeah, there has been panic buying and whatnot but I don't blame people for reacting fearfully. With institutions, I'm very pessimistic.
     
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  4. Cornerstone

    Cornerstone Well-known member

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  5. dragulagu

    dragulagu Galactic Explorer

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    World after Corona Virus

    [​IMG]

    pretty much sums it up
     
  6. ReasonEnduring

    ReasonEnduring Permanent Fixture

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    Yup. Less than 1% of the world population will have died. For most people it will be a story of that time they were forced to stay at home for weeks and/or lost their job.

    Provided we don't see a second spike life will go back to normal, albeit with a weakened economy.

    Some hard work will be needed to get things back to 2019 levels but it will highlight that despite the complaints, 2019 was far better economically speaking than post virus 2020.
     
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  7. slant

    slant Ruby Adoraboobie

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    Both. It depends on who you are and what your perspective is.

    The book I read able the great depression that I'm doing a video series exploring on YouTube upcoming,

    It talked a lot about how the lower class poorest people would band together and support each other. Especially rural farm communities because everyone knew each other and there was a culture.

    As you got higher into the economic states, the middle class, people who maybe had food most of the time but were poor, there was hostility. There were more in and out groups because there were different levels of income... So you could "fall further" so to speak. Those who were generous in those classes were often cast out of the community because they were perceived as a threat; inviting "poor, lazy" people into their community by giving them "hand outs".

    On the highest brackets of income there were little perceived effects on the lifestyle on terms of having food to eat and even extra luxuries no one else had, but these people were so far removed from the lower classes that they were distressed by their lesser income and succumbed to a lot of drinking and escapism to cope.

    The great depression is the closest example we have to a deep global economic crisis, even though our circumstances are uniquely different:

    We essentially willingly allowed our economy to collapse.

    Since some industry continues to run, we still have a skeleton. From what I'm understanding, and I'm no economist so don't put much weight behind this, the stimulus may allow for the economy to pick up.

    But that's largely dependent on if people are allowed to leave and get back to work relatively soon.

    Unemployment is higher now than it was during the great depression.

    I'm not willing to speculate on the social aspects regarding the virus or what will happen with the virus or how long this will last...

    That I don't think anybody really knows.

    What we can speculate fairly reasonably, based on past economic events and simple logic,

    A stimulus is just a band aid. Everybody knows that too, but people need hope. To keep the peace people need to think there is a plan. After 9/11 part of the reason it was so easy to go to war was that people wanted vindication. Decisions were made quickly and dogmatically. I see the same thing happening right now.

    My focus is to try to increase my physical fitness, save as much money as I can, and get used to fasting. I don't know if poverty could ever get as bad as it was during the great depression, but how much you have currently will be reduced. I think that will happen to everyone. I am focusing on myself, my mental fortitude and physical health. This way I can endure whatever happens. I will persist, because I exist.
     
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  8. ReasonEnduring

    ReasonEnduring Permanent Fixture

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    Its a false equivelency to say unemployment is Great Depression levels. Its true in pure numbers but the population is substantially bigger. As a percentage we're still around 10%, about the same as the Recession. Great Depression peaked at 25%.

    Now, we have had 7 million take up unemployment in a month, that is significant as the 25% of the Great Depression was over several years. But the total is less.

    Also yes, the actions of the US Government will rescue many individuals or businesses who would have collapsed due to the crisis. Will it save everyone? No. Will the economy recover better than no action at all? Absolutely.

    We'll be back down to maybe 2015/2016 levels possibly. Worst case scenario Great Recession levels of 2008/9/10. I don't see Great Depression Levels.

    President Hoover was particularly dumb when he stood back and did nothing during the Depression.

    It all comes back to Keynsian Economics. When the Private Sector is weak the Public Sector needs to go into overdrive. Then during a strong Private Sector the Public Sector should recover the losses.
     
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  9. slant

    slant Ruby Adoraboobie

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    Oh it wasn't even that; I wasn't citing numbers vs percent. I had read an article speculating 30% unemployment and haven't realized it was a projection. I concede to that.

    Why couldn't great Depression levels happen? I'm no economist so I don't really understand why you think it isn't that severe
     
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  10. ReasonEnduring

    ReasonEnduring Permanent Fixture

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    Also not an economist, but father is an accountant and I have a mild interest so I keep my ear to the ground.

    In the Depression Hoover did NOTHING to stablise the economy for years. That allowed Hoover-Villes to build up and become common place.

    The Government has already dropped cash into the pocket of most Americans so all of the low wage workers have something. It may not be enough in the long term but it's a plaster on a wound which is better than nothing.

    A lot of big businesses will be fine and keep going. A lot of small businesses are getting grants and loans from the government.

    There isn't also the lack of confidence in the market. The Depression saw a massive sell off in shares. The US injected Trillions into the stock market to stablise it so that will keep a lot of businesses liquid.

    Once the virus is over and business resumes investors will be eager to recover from the losses so we'll probably go back into a Bull Market.

    The Depression was a series of a spectular levels of ignorance and fortunately the US learned from that.
     
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  11. ReasonEnduring

    ReasonEnduring Permanent Fixture

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    I am the reverse. I expect institutions to endure but I expect people to get more aggressive and antagonistic.

    Its been happening for the past few years thanks to 'Fake News' and the lack of truth, honesty and science based approaches.

    People will look for someone to blame their suffering on. History never repeats itself but it does rhyme, and we are rhyming with the 1920s and 1930s and we all know what happened back then...

    Best case scenario its business as usual.

    Worst case scenario nations world wide start purging minorities in an effort to punish those to they have decided are to blame.

    Fascism only rises when enough people are willing.
     
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  12. ReasonEnduring

    ReasonEnduring Permanent Fixture

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    China, Russia and the US have been ripping into each other throughout this entire crisis.

    Why on earth would people think this is bringing our people together? Everyone is just looking for someone to blame. And those who are to blame are deflecting like no-bodies business.

    This isn't a unifying moment, its more 'lets blame X people, they created/spread the virus!'

    So much fake news, so many governments suppressing the truth about what would happen and what IS happening because it makes them look bad.
     
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  13. slant

    slant Ruby Adoraboobie

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    Hmmmmmm

    Some people were saying it was the war that got people out of the depression. People's 401ks tanking will recover you think? If this goes on into say the beginning of July is recovery feasible? My work will not be going back to normal into may 1st and my sense is it will continue past that.

    Stimulus will help but the longer it goes on the more loss it seems like would happen. How long would we have to quarantine do you think for a great depression similar crash to occur?
     
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  14. ReasonEnduring

    ReasonEnduring Permanent Fixture

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    The 401ks will take a hit, but over the next few decades they'll recover provided people diversify.

    The war had an effect but from what I heard it was FDR's support packages that brought jobs back.

    If it starts again in May things will be fine. If the end of May it will be wobbly. June things start getting difficult. July - no, that would be catastrophic.

    A month or so is fine, but any longer then yeah, we start pushing 20% down the line. A quarter to half a year, then yeah 30% becomes possible.

    But I doubt the US will be closed far beyond April. China is opening so the precident is there regardless of how bad the deaths get.
     
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  15. slant

    slant Ruby Adoraboobie

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    Sad for folks who are 50+ or older who dont necessarily have decades for their 401k to become viable again. Interesting perspective thanks for sharing. At this point I know I haven't done enough research to have an informed opinion
     
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  16. ReasonEnduring

    ReasonEnduring Permanent Fixture

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    Yeah, though they will also have 20-30 years of increases will keep them safe.

    Here is a chart - https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

    The Dow Jones would have to drop below 10,000 to wipe out all gains from the past few decades. Even losing 10-20% of the stock markets the 50/60 bracket will be fine for pensions.

    The people who will be in the worst situation is people who just started investing who will see their early investments take a hit. However over a few decades this will be balanced out by post-virus growth when it occurs.
     
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  17. philostam

    philostam Community Member

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    I really don't know how Euorozone countries will manage this. National debt is already more than 100% of GDP in a lot of them...with corona situation it's gonna increase sharply. With no monetary autonomy and printing, this is gonna get bad again.. Euro was just a terrible idea - they are gonna write textbooks about how terrible it was. It's essentially like gold standard that made 1929 depression worse than it should be.
     
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  18. philostam

    philostam Community Member

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    Inequality between countries will probably fall - but inequality within countries will increase even more. Soon we will be back in 18th century.
     
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  19. philostam

    philostam Community Member

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    Overall I agree with @ReasonEnduring.

    If countries are in lockdown 2-3 months and then gradually lift the restrictions, we should be fine. Consumer demand will definitely not recover immediately though - I imagine people will not be crowding in bars/restaurants quite for some time - until vaccine is finally available.

    Let's hope for a "V-shaped" recession.
     
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  20. Aneirin

    Aneirin AKA, David
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    I am hoping for a kinder and gentler world. Seems that we have been learning the value of things we lost in the techno rat race for bigger and faster, better and shinier. we.have learned in this country that our government is extremely useless when we as a people are threatened, at least in it's current flavor.
    at the same time as we are we finding out about the value of human togetherness we , or some of us turn to technology to try to bring us together, and it is a dismal failure, yet we are still blind to the fact that it is technology that got us here to an extent. for example, my band. . for weeks the leaders have been searching for an online way for us to play together. .when all we need to do is get together in a field, stay apart, and play. . but the techno junkie is unable to see that. . .
    Is our world able to see the mess we have made and learn from our forced quiet. . I hope, but I also doubt. .
    I guess we will have our individual responses to the next phase of our world, I for one will seek a quieter one. .
     
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