Akar
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How many years would it take for China to achieve total energy independence through renewables alone?
edit: readiness is one thing, logistics is another. Let's not confuse the two, please.
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US > Iran conflict begins
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edit: readiness is one thing, logistics is another. Let's not confuse the two, please.
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Roses In The Vineyard
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Akar
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United States Military Spending 2026: $1065.2B
In 2026, United States spent $1065.2 billion on military and defense, representing 3.5% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This budget covers the armed forces including army, navy, and air force expenditures.
Words can lie, numbers don't.
The same thing happened to Germany when Europe officially cut off hydrocarbon trade with Russia; it’s designed to create financial panic.
(Though a clarification is needed: European cargo ships are still bypassing sanctions by rounding Cape North, reaching Russia, and unloading in the Mediterranean. They simply turn off their transponders to legally evade international sanctions).
Australia has just signed a free trade agreement with Europe... In Europe, we are fortunate that our primary energy partners are North African. Our dependence on the Middle East is relative.
50% of Iranians are actually happy to see this system collapsing. Imagine defending a nation like Iran, which kills 50,000 of its own children for protesting. Anyone defending such a system should ask themselves: 'What if it were my sister in that square?' or 'Why didn't I have the courage to stand up for my rights?'
Ultimately, the civilian population cares about 'quiet living,' much like in Venezuela. If they must live oppressed and robbed of their natural resources by a dictatorial system, they might as well live under a regime that guarantees more privileges.
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Roses In The Vineyard
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According to a Goldman Sachs article from a few years back, about one generation (2060)
As per an article by The Guardian, they are pretty resilient as of this very moment.
China has been preparing for a global energy crisis for years. It is paying off now
As other Asian economies race to conserve energy, China has huge reserves of oil and gas as well as alternative energy sources like wind and solar
What are your references for these numbers?
The second statement in particular rings like a propaganda output.
As for the first statement, granted it was true, many Iranians have exhibited willingness to suspend their disdain for the regime to defend their sovereign existence nonetheless (Mirandi, 2026). That is if it was true at all--- footage from Tehran are showing large scale protests in support of the regime after Khomenei's death, even in spite of the bombings.
Hundreds of organised protests show resilience of Iranian regime, experts say
More than 850 public demonstrations of support held since start of war and at least 1,400 arrests, research reveals
P.s. FYI, numbers can in fact, be lies. For one, formulas can be manipulated by controlling what gets factored in or not. Numbers are not solid truths all of the time. Academics know that as fact.
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Akar
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I appreciate the reference to Goldman Sachs, but you have just confirmed my point regarding the distinction between Readiness and Logistics.According to a Goldman Sachs article from a few years back, about one generation (2060)
As per an article by The Guardian, they are pretty resilient as of this very moment.
China has been preparing for a global energy crisis for years. It is paying off now
As other Asian economies race to conserve energy, China has huge reserves of oil and gas as well as alternative energy sources like wind and solarwww.theguardian.com
What are your references for these numbers?
The second statement in particular rings like a propaganda output.
As for the first statement, granted it was true, many Iranians have exhibited willingness to suspend their disdain for the regime to defend their sovereign existence nonetheless (Mirandi, 2026). That is if it was true at all--- footage from Tehran are showing large scale protests in support of the regime after Khomenei's death, even in spite of the bombings.
Hundreds of organised protests show resilience of Iranian regime, experts say
More than 850 public demonstrations of support held since start of war and at least 1,400 arrests, research reveals
P.s. FYI, numbers can in fact, be lies. For one, formulas can be manipulated by controlling what gets factored in or not. Numbers are not solid truths all of the time. Academics know that as fact.
The year 2060 is 34 years away. In terms of geopolitics and national security, three decades is an eternity. History does not wait thirty years for a system to become resilient; the energy crisis is happening now, the blood in the streets is flowing now, and the transponders are being turned off now. Analyzing current crises based on promises for 2060 is like offering an umbrella to someone who has already drowned.
As for the claim that 'numbers can be lies,' that is a common academic trope usually deployed when real-world data becomes too uncomfortable to accept. A $1.065 trillion defense budget is not a manipulable formula: it is steel, kerosene, and global power projection. It is physics, not an opinion.
Finally, labeling the massacre of thousands of young people as 'propaganda' is an interesting rhetorical choice. I suppose it is easier to dismiss facts as propaganda than to answer the question I asked: What would you do if it were your sister in that square?
-Giammarco
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philostam
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If Trump says "OK, we have achieved our goals, we are out" but Iran continues blockading the strait of Hormuz, I am almost sure that everyone (except Russia) would unite against Iran.
Yes, US fucked up but the consequences are felt by everyone. And China will suffer the consequences more than the US which has higher degree of energy independence. And also China's export economy is more sensitive to a global recession.
Yes, US fucked up but the consequences are felt by everyone. And China will suffer the consequences more than the US which has higher degree of energy independence. And also China's export economy is more sensitive to a global recession.
Akar
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3 tankers? For a country that consumes 15 million barrels a day, that’s like bragging about finding a lighter during an ice age. It covers less than 12 hours of national demand.
You’re right on every front. There’s no need to say anything more. Now, let’s let the only inevitable judge deliver the verdict. Time.
-Giammarco
QuickTwist
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Correct. They pretend. The lie we have been fed in the USA is that one party is better than another, and while I would consider myself a conservative (meaning I want to CONSERVE the values we had from the start of this country), I do find that the political system in the US has failed us.
QuickTwist
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After reading/skimming the rest of the thread, saying that the US is in a bad spot militarily is... stupid. There's not a nicer way to say that, sorry.
I'm not even approving of the US invading Iran, or Israel, for that matter, even though I largely support the governments of both. Eventually, the US will not be a global power, but IDK when that will be. China is on the way out with abysmal birth rates, and Europe is just behind them in that regard. IDK if China is going to go to war with the US or not, but it is not out of the equation. I think supporting Ukraine at this point is pretty foolish, all things considered. What I know is that everyone is going to want a piece of that sweet oil pie, but only a few will get much of it, and meanwhile, it looks like the Iranians have picked a pretty poor successor, so Iran is just fucked, pardon my language.
I'm not even approving of the US invading Iran, or Israel, for that matter, even though I largely support the governments of both. Eventually, the US will not be a global power, but IDK when that will be. China is on the way out with abysmal birth rates, and Europe is just behind them in that regard. IDK if China is going to go to war with the US or not, but it is not out of the equation. I think supporting Ukraine at this point is pretty foolish, all things considered. What I know is that everyone is going to want a piece of that sweet oil pie, but only a few will get much of it, and meanwhile, it looks like the Iranians have picked a pretty poor successor, so Iran is just fucked, pardon my language.
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I disregarded the question thinking it was rhetorical.
If it were my sister on that square, I would leave the country as best as I could. I would migrate, likely to a country where my liberal values would be appreciated. Or so, I imagine.
Unfortunately, I would of course find that nearly everywhere in this world has gone "conservative", and that my colored butt will be diminished whichever skin color or religion supremacist land I go.
2. Chinese oil resilience
I gave you the information. I neither confirmed nor denied your presumption. In fact, you may have not noticed or potentially ---you might have--- discarded the article I posted by The Guardian which points to the readiness in discussion, which has always been my prior claim.
Additionally, resilience/readiness is not exactly is immortality.
China has a billion stockpile of oil, giving them resilience of about months. By then, the transition to renewable energy will have been expedited----
China had long been supplying Southeast Asian nations with e-bikes and trikes. These evs might be small, but for Southeast Asians who know how to make the most of small vehicles, combined with the geographic nearness of their urban-rural landscape, they will actually find ways to innovate and adapt faster to a world needing less oil.
The Chinese also have Iranian and Russian links, which means neither Hormuz nor the Red Sea, be that Suez Canal or El Mandab, are their only links to Iranian oil. It might be moved in smaller quantities, but their geographic linkage through the BRI solidifies their access to Iranian oil regardless of maritime blockage. By then, noting the expedited transition to ev, they would need much less.
Of course, none of that matters when the Middle East as a source itself gets decimated by missiles.
Which is why I said it somewhere else on this forum: people are so afraid of the nukes without even recognizing the equally catastrophic but much slower and completely agonizing demise of global supply chain disruption.
Hunger and immobility will be some of the key concerns, especially for a very car and truck dependent nation like the U.S.
I have said it before and I will say it again. Nobody is benfitting from this war, except the Russians and the Chinese.
3. Regime change is an archaic and a unidimensional interpretation for the motivations behind war and invasion especially in asset-rich and/or geographically strategic countries.
You speak as if this is the first and only time that the Middle East has been propositioned with so called heroic regime change. You speak like Venezuela was not also been meddled with. News flash, the regimes the US "changed" has decimated populations:
Insert meme when I find it
If you strip away all zealous rationalizations using race, religion, ideology or whatever, what you will find is one country violently invading the sovereign rights of another.
In the US, many are so enamored with property rights so to borrow the tactic of a tiktoker: that is like assasinating the father of a householed a few blocks down because you think he is abusing them, telling the household members to run, only to find the elder brother stepping up into household management. Further, you find the household members praying for the dead father than clamoring to take down the elder brother. Which leads to questions ----was the father truly abusive or does this neighbor just want something in particular? Is the household itself sitting on, say, an oil reserve perhaps?
4. To address subsequent reponses:
I emphasize: this is not just military v military ----economic hostage, natural geographic defenses have to be factored in. There are other dimensions that have to be factored in before anybody can claim who is losing or winning. LOL. To believe that this is just about military strength, is, uh, "sorry to say... stupid". (@QuickTwist, 2026)
To wholly and solely believe in the economic and military strength of the US is exactly the kind of hubris that started all this.
This will be a long duree war. You can watch how many American bodies fall flat on the ground over time. That is up to you.
As for Iranians, they have long framed this as existential. Many of them are willing to die on this.
Are we all ready to suffer?
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QuickTwist
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It's the same rhetoric as "The US is going through all their bombs; How will they ever recover," just in more sophisticated language.
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You asked a rhetorical question. I gave you a rhetorical answer. Was I expected to write a whole dissertation? It was the best my poop time could give me.
If points 2 and 3 are not analyses to you, that is not my problem.
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I'm sorry you didn't get my point. If geographic and economic indicators are merely rhetoric to you, there is no point in convincing you otherwise.
I should probably stop with my cruel humor, but the world will never be the same again after this year anyway. It's a good time to just watch insufferably from the sidelines with a bit of shallow cheer.
QuickTwist
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I'm not denying shit could really hit the fan (and it was one of my concerns that voting for Trump could lead to WWIII), but it will not be because the US military is weak, and that's frankly an asinine idea to think it will be because the US military has failed. I could see Russia and China teaming up to take us out, but I don't think Russia or China really wants to tangle with us by themselves.
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In a war started by US military chief of command, it is very important to clarify what their mission is because that is what defines whether or not this so-called military operation is a failure.
You are probably more accurately referring to the US military strength, which of course is formidable. However, that strength dissipates when it is spread thin. This was my key point in earlier posts.
QuickTwist
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Trump already said why we are there. He doesn't want Iran to pursue Nukes. That's the official story. Whether there is a lot more to it is another thing, but the message was clear: pursue nukes, and we will send you to the Stone Age, literally.
QuickTwist
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And that is the reason why I don't really want Trump in the business of Iran. Cuz Trump can always make some excuse about Iran pursuing nukes and literally starve a whole country to death, which would be unbelievably tragic.
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It is at most only some years before the CCP is gone while the rest of the world time will only tell, anyway in some circles people have been saying we'll see the EU go shortly before the US falls as a global power. Ultimately the board will be cleared and the world go through a big reset as the rest of this decade plays out going into the 2030s.