Chessie
Community Member
- MBTI
- INfJ
Crazy title, right? Nobody could possibly know something like that and certainly it wouldn't be worth doing anything about if someone did happen to know because one person can't really do anything about the collapse of an idea like a national economy.
I doubt this is anything resembling a wake-up call but I do think it warrants a warning.
I predicted using the information available in 2007 when the economy would collapse in 2008 down to the month. This was while things were still riding high. I also have a signed and dated e-mail with a list of companies and industries to invest in which could have made someone (at the time) extremely rich. Had I had the money then I would be rich now. Sad thing that I'm a poor twenty something.
Still, after following the economics of the United States for the last few years I guess it needs to be said. You've got a year. Things will start to turn genuinely bad this October (2011) and will fall apart entirely late next year (end of September).
My reasoning is as follows.
Third quarter buying the last two years has indicated significant slow-downs without the typical consumer uptick associated with holiday spending and travel. Major economic indicators point to the end of unemployment benefits for more than half the currently unemployed persons who lost jobs in 2008-2009 (the 99ers...Google it if you need to know) also coinciding with a spending decrease.
During the fourth quarter of this year China will experience a significant slow-down which will also incidentally happen as their large economic bubble (artificially conflated land/housing prices not unlike the ones that crippled us) bursts. It is already showing extreme signs of stress as the Chinese economy is collectively propped up by 64 million un-inhabited properties remaining on the market.
The American economy is also buoyed by the Chinese ownership of American debt. Now here we have two options. If America defaults on our debts we face nearly instantaneous collapse. Three months and we won't be able to support our military abroad. If we raise the debt ceiling we buy ourselves a little time but not much. If our debt is no longer worth anything (I.E. if China's economy falls apart due to this bubble) then we're dicked. There's no way to properly describe it besides that. Total depression, massive inflation.
Europe will not be able to help us largely because they've decided to help Greece who is currently hanging like a millstone around their necks and dragging the Euro down.
Next year we will face a situation where we've made use of all of our major emergency measures and another bail-out isn't financially feasible. Political forces will work to prevent changes that would save the people with major wide-spread welfare initiatives and increased taxation of the wealthy and upper-middle-class.
Once done the American economy begins total collapse just after the election and finishes once more during the third quarter. Conservative or Center-right liberal forces making use of the recent Citizens United decision will flood campaign coffers with money to prop up agencies and their own power bases within the US government. Decision making will be crippled and foreign powers will separate themselves from us to keep from being yanked down when our own economy fails.
With the attacks on union membership there will be a shortage of skilled labor in states with the loosest union laws. The economies of states based on tourism will go first, followed by finance, then heavy industry, then education, and lastly agriculture.
You have a year.
Make the most of it. Don't invest. Gold and precious metals are worthwhile short-term but long-term they will fail to make returns adequate to keep you alive.
Save salable resources. Divest yourself of debt. Put off major purchases. Make sure you have an operational form of transportation (A bicycle is best). Move closer to where you work if possible. Lock in rent rates with land-lords. Attempt to save a significant sum of each paycheck and have at least 4 months living expenses in the bank.
Get room-mates or stay with family. People with more people living with them will have greater success. Learn to cook from whatever is on hand. If nothing else, learn to make mulligan stew but has a number of soups you can reliably create on short notice.
Small corporations will survive less effectively than the big ones but will be less likely to lay off thousands of workers if they do survive. If you are currently in school you will need to make sure you have some work experience.
I wish I had better news. I'll say there's a good future afterwards. Much of what we think of America is going to die off (perhaps not literally but metaphorically) next year. Many of our ideals will be tested and found wanting (in particular those saying we are anything more than human because we're American). It'll seem for a long time as though we've gone insane. Moreso than now.
We will come through it. Not America...but the peoples of this world.
I doubt this is anything resembling a wake-up call but I do think it warrants a warning.
I predicted using the information available in 2007 when the economy would collapse in 2008 down to the month. This was while things were still riding high. I also have a signed and dated e-mail with a list of companies and industries to invest in which could have made someone (at the time) extremely rich. Had I had the money then I would be rich now. Sad thing that I'm a poor twenty something.
Still, after following the economics of the United States for the last few years I guess it needs to be said. You've got a year. Things will start to turn genuinely bad this October (2011) and will fall apart entirely late next year (end of September).
My reasoning is as follows.
Third quarter buying the last two years has indicated significant slow-downs without the typical consumer uptick associated with holiday spending and travel. Major economic indicators point to the end of unemployment benefits for more than half the currently unemployed persons who lost jobs in 2008-2009 (the 99ers...Google it if you need to know) also coinciding with a spending decrease.
During the fourth quarter of this year China will experience a significant slow-down which will also incidentally happen as their large economic bubble (artificially conflated land/housing prices not unlike the ones that crippled us) bursts. It is already showing extreme signs of stress as the Chinese economy is collectively propped up by 64 million un-inhabited properties remaining on the market.
The American economy is also buoyed by the Chinese ownership of American debt. Now here we have two options. If America defaults on our debts we face nearly instantaneous collapse. Three months and we won't be able to support our military abroad. If we raise the debt ceiling we buy ourselves a little time but not much. If our debt is no longer worth anything (I.E. if China's economy falls apart due to this bubble) then we're dicked. There's no way to properly describe it besides that. Total depression, massive inflation.
Europe will not be able to help us largely because they've decided to help Greece who is currently hanging like a millstone around their necks and dragging the Euro down.
Next year we will face a situation where we've made use of all of our major emergency measures and another bail-out isn't financially feasible. Political forces will work to prevent changes that would save the people with major wide-spread welfare initiatives and increased taxation of the wealthy and upper-middle-class.
Once done the American economy begins total collapse just after the election and finishes once more during the third quarter. Conservative or Center-right liberal forces making use of the recent Citizens United decision will flood campaign coffers with money to prop up agencies and their own power bases within the US government. Decision making will be crippled and foreign powers will separate themselves from us to keep from being yanked down when our own economy fails.
With the attacks on union membership there will be a shortage of skilled labor in states with the loosest union laws. The economies of states based on tourism will go first, followed by finance, then heavy industry, then education, and lastly agriculture.
You have a year.
Make the most of it. Don't invest. Gold and precious metals are worthwhile short-term but long-term they will fail to make returns adequate to keep you alive.
Save salable resources. Divest yourself of debt. Put off major purchases. Make sure you have an operational form of transportation (A bicycle is best). Move closer to where you work if possible. Lock in rent rates with land-lords. Attempt to save a significant sum of each paycheck and have at least 4 months living expenses in the bank.
Get room-mates or stay with family. People with more people living with them will have greater success. Learn to cook from whatever is on hand. If nothing else, learn to make mulligan stew but has a number of soups you can reliably create on short notice.
Small corporations will survive less effectively than the big ones but will be less likely to lay off thousands of workers if they do survive. If you are currently in school you will need to make sure you have some work experience.
I wish I had better news. I'll say there's a good future afterwards. Much of what we think of America is going to die off (perhaps not literally but metaphorically) next year. Many of our ideals will be tested and found wanting (in particular those saying we are anything more than human because we're American). It'll seem for a long time as though we've gone insane. Moreso than now.
We will come through it. Not America...but the peoples of this world.
