One Possible Future: 2025

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My son and I listened (grimly) to this report on NPR this morning on the way to school. At the end of it he sighed and said "I'm not so enthusiastic about 2025." and I replied "No, me neither. And your generation will be the ones to deal with the changes, too." and he said "Yeah, hence my non-enthusiasm."

What do you think? How does this forecast make you feel?

Analysts: By 2025, U.S. Won't Be Top World Power

by Tom Gjelten



Morning Edition, November 21, 2008 · U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that the United States is likely to lose its dominant global position in the coming years, with economic and political power shifting to countries such as China and India.


That assessment, outlined in the "Global Trends 2025" report by the National Intelligence Council, contrasts sharply with the conclusions of a similar study released by the same agencies just four years ago. The earlier report projected "continued U.S. dominance" through the year 2020.


The new study, titled "A Transformed World," projects a "multipolar" global landscape, where the United States is merely "one of a number of actors on the world stage," and where the U.S. dollar will only be "first among equals" in a basket of international currencies.


"We're thinking of it as the rise of the rest, rather than as the decline of the United States," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the National Intelligence Council, as he introduced the report Thursday.


Still, the assessment is largely sobering. The intelligence analysts who prepared the global outlook foresee increased international conflict over food, water, energy, and other scarce resources. International institutions, from the International Monetary Fund to the United Nations, will become less effective, due to the multiplicity of global players. "Non-state actors," including tribal groups, religious organizations, private corporations and even organized criminal networks, will play more important roles.
Among the more startling conclusions in the Global Trends 2025 report is a judgment that an unnamed government in Eastern or Central Europe "could effectively be taken over and run by organized crime." The report also speculates that some states in Africa or South Asia could "wither away" as a result of the failure of their governments to provide basic services to the population.


By 2025, according to the analysts who prepared the report, China and India will be leading economic players, with Turkey, Indonesia and Iran in the "up and coming" category. The economic model that has largely prevailed since World War II – western democratic capitalism – may no longer be favored. Instead, "state capitalism" such as that practiced in Russia and China could be ascendant.


In presenting the report Thursday at the Atlantic Council, Fingar said some countries that were recently convinced to follow the Western economic model, such as those in the former Soviet bloc, have since become disillusioned.


"Much of the world that became democratic in the last 15 years has gone through more pain than gain," Fingar said. "They've made adjustments away from populist regimes, away from socialist regimes, away from one-party dominated systems, and they are still waiting for the payoff. … Now they have an alternative model."


Fingar said the economic stress in these countries will be "exacerbated" by the current international financial crisis.


The intelligence analysts paid particular attention to major demographic factors that could contribute to global instability, especially in the Middle East. Fingar said countries in that region will face a burgeoning youth population in the coming years.


"That's a lot of raging hormones," Fingar said, "a lot of young people with the normal healthy disrespect for authority, informed of what their cohorts, perhaps in the big cities, across the border, across the sea, have that they don't have. [They are] a group that would be potentially mobilized for all kinds of things."


One positive development highlighted in the Global Trends report is the "waning" influence of terrorism, particularly as practiced by al-Qaida. Such a development, Fingar said, would be explained by the group's killing of fellow Muslims or its lack of a positive political program. "It's opposed to modernity," Fingar said. "It's opposed to democracy. It's opposed to a lot of things that the youthful population clearly wants. So the environment will become less hospitable."


One encouraging prediction: The intelligence analysts who prepared the Global Trends report suggest that a "worldwide shift" to a new energy technology that can replace oil "will be under way or accomplished by 2025." The problem: Energy demand won't match supply, meaning the potential for geopolitical conflict over energy resources could be severe.



http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97295939
 
Feels about right.
 
This was the chilling part, for me:
The intelligence analysts who prepared the global outlook foresee increased international conflict over food, water, energy, and other scarce resources. International institutions, from the International Monetary Fund to the United Nations, will become less effective, due to the multiplicity of global players. "Non-state actors," including tribal groups, religious organizations, private corporations and even organized criminal networks, will play more important roles.

Smells like anarchy to me.

*apply clothespin to nose*
 
Sounds more like the potential for a World War to me. Major international players fighting over limited resources. Energy is going to be the new wealth. Commodities are fairly worthless if you don't have the means to move them to the markets that need them.

The biggest change will probably be a curtailing of liberty as the media, corporations, and politicians invoke countless moral panics in an attempt to distract the public's attention from the major economic and political problems. From present example, this means the government and their backing corporate entities will use the fear of deteriorating moral conditions to gain further social control over the people.

I would say it would be a good idea to get started now. The key is going to be local communities coming together. Find a community you are comfortable with, get close with you neighbors, install solar panels on you house and wind mills where you can. Prepare to give up water luxuries like a lawn and pool. It would be unfavorable to lean how to grow your own food if you don't live in a favorable climate as water resources should be limited. Worse comes to worse, and local communities will be fighting other local communities in something akin to gang warfare.
 
lisascream.jpg
 
I think Satya is right about it sounding like world war, however think about all the conflicts happening right now in the world, already kind of seems like the world is at war. This just looks like its going to be more pronounced and bigger countries are going to get invovled, I still think things are going to start happening before 2025.

plus getting involved with a community in that way sounds like something that would be totaly fun Satya, have you ever thought about the Community Pasture I think those would of been a cool way to farm back in the day, some places in Saskatchewan still do this.
 
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i'm actually really surprised that this is news to some (i'm really not trying to be arrogant here, i'm genuinely surprised.) a few of my professors, family friends, just people i know here and there, have been discussing this change from years back. china always seemed the main vote, though. india is an interesting alternative.
 
i'm actually really surprised that this is news to some (i'm really not trying to be arrogant here, i'm genuinely surprised.) a few of my professors, family friends, just people i know here and there, have been discussing this change from years back. china always seemed the main vote, though. india is an interesting alternative.

It's not that I'm surprised, and it's not really news in the "enlightening, breaking news" kind of way... it's just kind of grim to have it all laid out in fairly certain terms with a timeframe attached to it. A timeframe that close.

Another reason for me reacting to this story was that it hit me full on that this is the world my children will be living in, especially my youngest. That hit me like a ton of bricks.
 
yeah, the timeframe is pretty crazy.

i'll be 47 when that one hits.

i really, really didn't expect the economic crisis to occur in the timeframe it did either.


 
Energy demand won't match supply? Sure, maybe if alternate energy sources aren't properly developed and implemented, as wind alone could take care of everything.


"Measurements made by US-American researchers in 8,000 locations have shown that we could meet the world’s electrical energy requirements with wind power — on the condition that we use it more effectively."

http://www.discoverychannel.co.uk/technology/alternative_energy/wind/index.shtml

"In an in-press article, Archer and Jacobson use worldwide weather stations (more accurate than the above GEOS-1 data, but not covering the oceans) and estimate the worldwide land and near-shore wind resource. Their calculation of total wind resource is 72 TW. This is seven times the world's electricity demand and five times the world energy demand (all commercial fuels and carriers).

http://www.ocean.udel.edu/windpower/ResourceMap/index-world.html


When you add in everything else like nuclear (possibly even fusion), geothermal, biofuel (made from decomposing biomass or materials made from oil, like tires and plastics), tidal, solar, etc., I'd be surprised if supply couldn't meet demand.
 
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The problem isn't the technology, it's the development. It will take decades to get the infrastructure set up and it will require vast amounts of oil and gasoline to do that.
 
Like others here, most of the article isn't exactly a revelation to me, in fact its merely a summary of the developing factors that threaten global stability. Anyone who has kept up with the news from the past 5 years, from a wide selection of sources both on and offline, mainstream and amateur could have written something similar to this, although without the timeframes perhaps.

Of particular interest is the portion "The intelligence analysts who prepared the Global Trends report suggest that a "worldwide shift" to a new energy technology that can replace oil "will be under way or accomplished by 2025." as there are several different emerging technologies that could fit into this description, I wonder what is being hinted at? Perhaps its just an attempt to end the article on a positive note. I sincerely hope there is more to it than that!

IMHO, a great deal of these problems in the world can be overcome by more cooperation and openness. We are all linked in so many ways these days, that it is really the best way to go. Obviously global and national security is a complex balance of alliances and competitive advantages, but I think more flexibility on the part of all the players, should be the focus. I can imagine the cries of "bah pure generalisation" or "pointless idealism" from some of you in response to my viewpoint. But so many good things in life and history start with a shift in Values initially. Maybe its just my F speaking but I do believe that problem solving, can be made more effective with a change of heart so to speak...Following that comes (ideally) more diversity in ideas from radically different minds working in parallel , and hopefully better and more innovative technical and social solutions or processes to address each issue separately and wholistically. I sometimes think the USA forgets how many foreigners care about her problems from all ends of the globe, and how many countries and individuals worry over the same concerns. Or at least it seems that way from the tone of the article above. There is always hope for the future, and keeping that hope going is important!
 
There is always hope for the future, and keeping that hope going is important!

This is exactly how my son and I ended our discussion (post listening to the report on NPR). That it is but one possible future, and if enough people have hopes (and ideas and the energy to work cooperatively toward those ideas) there's always the chance the outlook could shift.
 
I have one thing to say about all this.

We will adapt.

The world has gone through many changes and we have always found ways of adapting. People like to predict doom and gloom all the time because more attention gets paid to that, but in reality as soon as a problem is foreseen they already have people in development stages to remedy it.

At this point in time though, we do need to start making very drastic changes or else it really will be the end for us. Energy is running out. If we can just jump a few hurdles in technology we will be fine.

The World Bank and the IMF are going to control the globe whether anyone likes it or not.

[YOUTUBE]_xgxCf05Kmw[/YOUTUBE]
 
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Does anyone actually believe that the world will still be here by then? I think it will end somewhere around 2016. Obama has to be the Antichrist. Barack Hussein Obama: 6 + 7 + 5 = 18 = 6 + 6 + 6
Revelation 13:18 This calls for wisdom. If anyone has insight, let him calculate the number of the beast, for it is man's number. His number is 666.
 
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Oh noes! So is George W. Bush. We should have died eight years ago!

George Bush = 1776 but 1776 x (3/8) = 666
George W. Bush = 2109 but 2109 x (6/19) = 666
G. W. Bush = 1666 –> 1 666 –> 666 number 1, champion 666

AHHHHHH!

Oh yea and the real number of the beast is 616 anyway.

 
Does anyone actually believe that the world will still be here by then? I think it will end somewhere around 2016. Obama has to be the Antichrist. Barack Hussein Obama: 6 + 7 + 5 = 18 = 6 + 6 + 6
Revelation 13:18 This calls for wisdom. If anyone has insight, let him calculate the number of the beast, for it is man's number. His number is 666.

:m153:

I got a new one to play with.
 
I've been waiting for this. I'm pretty sure we do this with every single individual that comes to power in the world.
 
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