Russia's march to the sea, Crimea, Russia's second march four years later, the convoy to the north,

[just me]

Anyone want to share their speculations about Russia and Ukraine over the past four years?

How about the march north toward Moscow by the oligarch?

What about the meeting in China?

I think we are seeing a smoke screen for moving something nasty. Wonder where it is heading and if world intelligence knows about it?

 

[Sloe Djinn]

I’m not sure what to think but this particular war has oddly (as opposed to other things) gripped my attention to where I look at this map and check r/ukraineconflict on Reddit daily. The map may not be the most accurate in terms of the changing fronts, but I like that it also details an updating array of events. I hope that Ukraine is able to take back all the territory that was annexed.

I don’t know what putin wants with ukraine but if you’re going to complain that nato is knocking on your door, don’t invade neighboring countries in the first place?

 

[just me]

Think he is seeking a pipeline to sell his oil, for one thing. Funny how he is now calling Ukraine terrorists. One of the last counter-attacks against Russian aggression was only about 160 miles south of St. Petersburg.
Now Putin is said to be sending missiles and even nukes to Belarus, who says they have many places to store nukes. Threatening the world with nukes shows as much disrespect for human life nowadays as can be.
They think it gives them more power. Why threaten someone who you want to sell your oil to? I am reminded of the Caucasus and oil flow. Blasting away at citizens is for losers.

 

[John K]

I think the situation is typical of nations not understanding each other. What Russia is doing in Ukraine is vile, but the Western reaction is too naive and simplistic. For Russia, this is an existential issue, because Ukraine has rarely in the past been distinct from Russia. In fact Kiev was once the capital and the heart of the Russian people. We are to blame really for not supporting Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed and being magnanimous in supporting their recovery and reconstruction after that. They could have been our friend and ally, and Ukraine would then have been part of that process. Instead we have backed Russia into corner. They have been there many times centuries ago, facing invasion from the Mongol hoards and the expansionist Western European powers. They've lost hundreds of millions of people in wars generated by the West in the last 250 years. It's no wonder that they fear the loss of their area of influence. That doesn't excuse what they are doing, but we'll never reconcile with them if we don't understand the centuries' old fear that drives them.

 

[just me]

Saw on the TV this evening how Russia is selling Ukraine's grain from Sevastopol in Crimea, bit by bit. This is grain they took from Ukraine's shipment that was being publicly approved of.

Hate to say it, but what does one expect from the Biden Administration? I think either of the old Bush Administrations would have been more firm. Biden may well be the reason he chose when to do this.

"collapse of the Soviet Union, sequence of events that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 31, 1991. The former superpower was replaced by 15 independent countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Britannica

I do not see how we pushed them into a corner at all. Their own greed for more ways to the seas did this. They couldn't settle for their port there. The way it is turning out, Belarus will be supplied with many nukes. Putin may get nukes in Ukraine from us if he keeps up with this madness. I had a corporation dissolved before. That brings about the end.

Collapse of the Soviet Union - Aftermath, Coup, Repercussions

collapse of the Soviet Union - Collapse of the Soviet Union - Aftermath, Coup, Repercussions: The coup failed for several reasons. Army and KGB officers declined to carry out orders to storm the White House. The plotters did not cope with Gorbachev's refusal to cooperate, and failed to arrest...

www.britannica.com

Ronald Reagan was helping Gorbachev. Communism there had to go. People had rights to be heard by then. Democracy was on their minds. Gorbachev appointed Boris Yeltzen to help, then asked for his resignation. The voting public later put him in power because of his stand for Democracy.

I see a lot of infighting among Russian and Soviet Union over the years. Maybe they should be more paranoid of themselves! Poor, poor Putin is not scared of anyone, as of now.

" On December 1 Ukraine voted overwhelmingly for independence(1991-92?).

 

[just me]

• 1997
  • Ukraine and Russia conclude the Treaty of Friendship, pledging to respect each other’s borders and preserve the rights of national minorities in each country. The matter of the Black Sea Fleet is settled, with Russia receiving the bulk of the ships as well as an extended lease on port facilities in Sevastopol and the right to garrison up to 25,000 troops in Crimea. Ukraine receives over $500 million in compensation, and the Russian troops in Sevastopol are subject to a status of forces agreement that states that they may not operate outside of their bases without prior approval from Ukrainian authorities. Britannica

 

[YvaR]

I would like to add my not very sophisticated opinion as I try to avoid reading and hearing most public media.

I'd like to agree with John K. Some invasions in the past could very well be the reason why Russia wants to prevent more states entering NATO at their boarders.

But mainly I am wondering if Putin "just" wants power over the Black Sea to enter western Europe deep and fast without much resistance by the remaining countries there. Of course only for the "just-in-case" case.

In line with some other - let's put it politely - eccentric men concerning keeping their power at all costs, he wants to demonstrate how big and powerful he is. The risks for happening something nasty is high, I think. Only because of the inferiority complexes of very few people. Hopefully they don't get far with that and can be stopped in time.

 

[John K]

I would like to add my not very sophisticated opinion as I try to avoid reading and hearing most public media.

I'd like to agree with John K. Some invasions in the past could very well be the reason why Russia wants to prevent more states entering NATO at their boarders.

But mainly I am wondering if Putin "just" wants power over the Black Sea to enter western Europe deep and fast without much resistance by the remaining countries there. Of course only for the "just-in-case" case.

In line with some other - let's put it politely - eccentric men concerning keeping their power at all costs, he wants to demonstrate how big and powerful he is. The risks for happening something nasty is high, I think. Only because of the inferiority complexes of very few people. Hopefully they don't get far with that and can be stopped in time.

I agree Yva. Putin is a despot, like many others, and he's tried to take advantage of the situation - he's one in a long line of would-be Tsars. But the underlying situation at the cultural level is much more complicated and is based on 150 years of threat and invasion of Russia from the West, starting with Napoleon, and going back many hundreds of years before that to the times when they were subordinate to the Mongols and to medieval threats from the West. It's no excuse for what they are doing in Ukraine now, but we'll never be able to work out what is happening and form pragmatic and peaceful policies in that region if we don't try and understand the fears that drive the ordinary people there. Of course the despots take advantage of them and channel the fear for their own ends - and like all bullies their fear is expressed in terms of threat, boasting and self-inflation. The only language they seem to know is mass murder when they are back to the wall. It wouldn't surprise me when all this is over that he's caused the deaths of as many of his own folks as he has amongst the Ukrainians.
I'm no expert either, but reading the history of the Napoleonic invasion of Russia, the impact of the two 20th Century world wars in that region, and looking at the history of folks like Alexander Nevsky and Ivan the Terrible is quite an eye-opener. Reading up on the 1000 year history of the Orthodox Church in the region is also an eye-opener.

Perhaps an analogy to what is going on in Ukraine - as a thought experiment what if Texas and California became independent from the United States, then started looking at a possible link up with Mexico whilst at the same time Mexico was exploring the idea of an economic and military alliance with China. The feeling of threat in the USA would be palpable. I suspect this is very close to how the Russians feel about the situation in Ukraine.

 

[aeon]

I agree Yva. Putin is a despot, like many others, and he's tried to take advantage of the situation - he's one in a long line of would-be Tsars. But the underlying situation at the cultural level is much more complicated and is based on 150 years of threat and invasion of Russia from the West, starting with Napoleon, and going back many hundreds of years before that to the times when they were subordinate to the Mongols and to medieval threats from the West. It's no excuse for what they are doing in Ukraine now, but we'll never be able to work out what is happening and form pragmatic and peaceful policies in that region if we don't try and understand the fears that drive the ordinary people there. Of course the despots take advantage of them and channel the fear for their own ends - and like all bullies their fear is expressed in terms of threat, boasting and self-inflation. The only language they seem to know is mass murder when they are back to the wall. It wouldn't surprise me when all this is over that he's caused the deaths of as many of his own folks as he has amongst the Ukrainians.
I'm no expert either, but reading the history of the Napoleonic invasion of Russia, the impact of the two 20th Century world wars in that region, and looking at the history of folks like Alexander Nevsky and Ivan the Terrible is quite an eye-opener. Reading up on the 1000 year history of the Orthodox Church in the region is also an eye-opener.

Perhaps an analogy to what is going on in Ukraine - as a thought experiment what if Texas and California became independent from the United States, then started looking at a possible link up with Mexico whilst at the same time Mexico was exploring the idea of an economic and military alliance with China. The feeling of threat in the USA would be palpable. I suspect this is very close to how the Russians feel about the situation in Ukraine.

This is the best short summary of the situation I have read or heard in quite some time. A full read of the events and embarrassments which came many years before is required simply because of the degree they inform and characterize, inasmuch as they have become a foundational part of their national identity.

Well-Done and Well-Said,
Ian

 

[just me]

I see Russia's port in Sevastopol, and asking to post 25,000 soldiers there, then not honoring the treaty as Russian aggression. I cannot use Napoleon as an excuse for Putin's actions. He is a chess player, and Russia has had some great ones. He is thinking moves ahead. His march to the sea to take over Crimea would have been rewarded with A-10 reactions from me. Note: I said reactions. You are saying this is a reaction from their past history. We want the Russians there. I think we need the Russians there. Stepping on their neighbors' integrity and bombing civilian targets is just giving Ukraine's citizens more and more hatred for the ways their lives have been changing. We are just trying to build a balance of power in the form of defensive moves. Russia is on the offense.

Did you ever think of all these much smaller countries forming alliances as a means to try and protect themselves from a much larger country that was left with more nukes than anybody? Heck, we help Russia maintain the safety of their nukes. Russia's Putin is not to be trusted. He is building future aggression in Crimea, just as he rolled over Crimea and tried to annex it, which the whole world has not accepted. What he is doing is proof of the person he is. We do not want troops on the ground in Russia because Russia is needed...without the aggression. He asked for Yeltsin's retirement in shame, and it turned against him because the people liked what Boris was selling. Their lack of closure has left a vacuum for "how to run Russia".

He, Medvedev, and Belarus threating to use nukes to disseminate Europe. Europe is not trying to do anything but protect themselves, and has to live with nuclear threats. They have not overstepped their boundaries. Russia knows of the devastation in the form of retaliatory nukes, so why the threats? This reminds me of Israel somewhat. If Putin would back out of Ukraine and Crimea, which is not theirs, the countries can rebuild. Ukraine reactions may stop immediately, but Putin wants it all. He is causing himself to watch his back in the homeland, not anyone else.

 

[just me]

Just the way I read it, respectfully disagreeing.

 

[YvaR]

When you write "we" who do include?

I think John wanted to present another point of view for a more comprehensive picture of the whole 'the world against Russia' discussion. It's important to see all aspects. Of course Russias past is not a valid reason for their actions. But in my opinion John doesn't want to justify their actions by that.

 

[just me]

Thank you, YvaR. John and I go way back with understanding. We have no problems. They can share, but I do not have to agree. I did say I disagreed RESPECTFULLY. Thanks for interceding.

When I say things like "we", it can point to many directions. I'm trying to get away from the "I" mentality, and know not to be alone. I feel Russia helps to keep their "neighbors with mal-intent" in check. I also think it was wise to allow the old Soviet Union-ers who wished their own independence to form states(countries).

Of course Russias past is not a valid reason for their actions.

I've been watching Putin a long time. Have pictures of him while hunting and fishing, as I do with other world leaders. I also know if a coroner can be bought, the COD could say almost anything. He likes to stand in photographs looking like he is a man's man. People like this can help things to happen to make them look stronger in times of weakness. Without their nuke programs, where would they be? That is why we(the world) left him with so many nukes, but that treaty has been exited by US and Russia. Nukes are and will continue to be problems for our world. Japan is supposedly tossing years of nuclear waste in our oceans. IAEA came in a little late on those discussions.
Maybe we will have green fish we cannot eat soon, and reefs dead long before the weather kills them.

I see it as children playing. If I can't have my way, I'm going to break out the nukes. They go both ways, though. In this case of events, they will be coming back from many directions. They don't want to let that wildcard become of no use, but to everyone's destruction and problems? My finger is on the triggers, too. What does this prove?

 

[just me]

Ukraine is pushing Putin so hard, Putin is readying one of his ICBM sites. What is the world going to do if he nukes Ukraine. Best get serious and know your answers.

 

[just me]

Everyone needs to decide what they would do and be ready to do it at the first sign of launches. How absurd. How bizarre for someone to even think about WWIII and all that destruction. Nukes leave something behind them and in the wind. It may very well take nukes to stop a WWIII.

We need to have a sit down. Now.

 

[Roses In The Vineyard]

This is what Russia will be remembered for generations to come if the world doesn't go up in a fire ball.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/16d2p9r

 

[just me]

It will be what Putin is remembered for, especially. Specifically, he has already shown the world his colors.

Years ago, the world joined forces to rid Kuwait of Saddam Hussein. They could have easily went to Baghdad and took it, too: that was not their objective.

I feel there are many logistical and financial objectives on Putin's mind. He is losing support from many of the people there. Many of them feel they are killing their brothers or dying for no reason. People of many countries are helping to fight him, though not directly. The world is beginning to understand he will not stop unless he is stopped. All we are attempting to do is get Ukraine back to what they had.

The world is having enough difficulties without this. If we need more money to live in today, get it. Just make certain how it is being used and where everything is going to. I would like to see an inventory, would you?

Our world is at the steps of tomorrow. Why do we have to bargain with what we need versus what someone else wants? We find wants in bills waiting to be passed for needs all the time. It is time to stop the bullying and bartering in government. Stop acting like children. It's time to belly up to the bar. Stop the infighting. Stop the party pride. Maybe you haven't asked the right people for their help.