Corona / Wuhan virus

dragulagu

dragulagu

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So, as this is a hot topic on the news nowadays. Panic and Corona jokes aside,
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I think it's an interesting topic to discuss.

Seems it's still spreading at the moment, but controllable. Problem seems to be the incubation period of 2 weeks where the symptoms are difficult to differentiate from more regular viral infections.

But the survival rate of it is pretty good. It's different from the Ebola outbreak where the virus is much more aggressive. And that one was controlled as well, even with the amount of casualties.

It is interesting how we -as the human race- react on such a pandemic outbreak (news, media, organisations, WHO, politics, etc.) and the amount of tools that we currently have available to react on such an outbreak.

For the interested, Wuhan virus Genetic Sequence:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947

you can run a couple analysis algorithms on it as well, for the curious minds. (Clicking BLAST link on the right, run BLAST).
https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi?CMD=Web&PAGE_TYPE=BlastDocs&DOC_TYPE=BlastHelp
Screen Shot 2020-01-26 at 14.00.57.webp
 
I came across this video from a man in Wuhan talking about what's going on there. I think it's worth watching to hear his perspective on not just the outbreak but on what it's like to be a citizen in authoritarian China.


There are cases in other countries. I think US has had about 3 so far. All reports say those sick are in isolation and in stable condition. I've heard the same for the case in France. Hopefully the spread stops there and those sick can recover. But China was not prepared for this and while it may be contained in the few cases that spread elseware, it sounds very serious there.
 
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acd said:
I came across this video from a man in Wuhan talking about what's going on there. I think it's worth watching to hear his perspective on not just the outbreak but on what it's like to be a citizen in authoritarian China.


There are cases in other countries. I think US has had about 3 so far. All reports say those sick are in isolation and in stable condition. I've heard the same for the case in France. Hopefully the spread stops there and those sick can recover. But China was not prepared for this and while it may be contained in the few cases that spread elseware, it sounds very serious there.
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I think the important piece on the video is at 4:30 where he talks about the chaotic structure of the medical services currently running in China. That's what is bothersome.
 
I think it's too early to be able to comfortably say whether it is controllable or not - it might just be the calm before the storm. I saw something earlier where a Chinese nurse made a video saying the actual figure in China was around 90 000 cases. Ik one of my friends in Cambridge uni is actually dreading it because they recently had student visitors from Wuhan University before we became aware of what's happening, so potentially rip Cambridge they'll be missed
 
Wyote said:
Been checking in on this map the past few days, it gives a good readout of things, though not perfect by any means
Ihttps://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Ok, seriously impressed on the data. Thanks Wyote!
In return: https://www.ventusky.com/ , a pretty cool live-casting site on the current weather :grimacing:

Rit4lin said:
I think it's too early to be able to comfortably say whether it is controllable or not - it might just be the calm before the storm. I saw something earlier where a Chinese nurse made a video saying the actual figure in China was around 90 000 cases. Ik one of my friends in Cambridge uni is actually dreading it because they recently had student visitors from Wuhan University before we became aware of what's happening, so potentially rip Cambridge they'll be missed
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I doubt it to be honest. The mortality rate of the illness is fairly low. The key point of this situation is the ability to rapidly react to the spreading of the disease. And that's a lesson for China. Drop the whole facade and proactively request full support from other nations and stop the disease in time.
 
dragulagu said:
In return: https://www.ventusky.com/ , a pretty cool live-casting site on the current weather :grimacing:
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Ooooo thanks! I am always on the prowl for stuff like this, in any area really, but I am particularly obsessed with weather so I'm gonna download this app asap lol.
Got anymore of them data displaying apps? Lolol
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Wyote said:
Been checking in on this map the past few days, it gives a good readout of things, though not perfect by any means
Ihttps://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Click to expand...
Yeah not so updated. There have been 11 cases in Da Nang, Vietnam already. One died. Most of the casualties are of the geriatric patients. There was also one patient here in Sai Gon that was quarantined. Most of the patients are connected to Wuhan the place itself. A lesser, if not rare number of patients were infected outside of Wuhan.
 
mintoots said:
Any chance this Wuhan Virus is a biochemical warfare? Or at least a distraction away from Iran.
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It isn't, no one in their right minds would release a biochemical weapon, China would receive massive repercussions from the whole world if they did that. China don't work that way.

From the INTPforum: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf
This paper gives a more proper view on the situation (even if this is simulated).

Key findings

● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.

● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.

● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.

● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings.
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We'll see, I don't think it will spread out to a global pandemic and if China allows it, then a treatment could be created in time before too many casualties are made.
Currently using Singapore's alert status in regards to the global threat level: https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan

We are currently at yellow.

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dragulagu said:
It isn't, no one in their right minds would release a biochemical weapon, China would receive massive repercussions from the whole world if they did that. China don't work that way.

From the INTPforum: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf
This paper gives a more proper view on the situation (even if this is simulated).



We'll see, I don't think it will spread out to a global pandemic and if China allows it, then a treatment could be created in time before too many casualties are made.
Currently using Singapore's alert status in regards to the global threat level: https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan

We are currently at yellow.

dorscon.png
Click to expand...
This is very informative. Thanks.

(Also, I was joking :()
 
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