Sri Lanka marks beginning of global economic crisis

slant

slant

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I'm never sure how to frame these conversations because there's a lot of details to argue about, so I'm using Sri Lanka as a bouncing point for a broader discussion.

Sri Lanka's economic crisis may be the beginning of a global crisis that will impact economically developing countries the worst.

Even prior to the Ukraine war, Madagascar this year has been experiencing famine level droughts. This drought on a global level combined with other stresses has already been announced by the U.N. and similar organizations.

Amid the global energy crisis, countries like Sri Lanka are seeing a halt of transportation and reverting to bikes and other means as more economical.

I get the sense that this is the beginning of a trend as many developing countries will begin to collapse under these intense pressures.

Feel free to share any thoughts or further information on the ongoing economic crisis.
 
slant said:
...a halt of transportation and reverting to bikes and other means...
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Encouraging news! :)

Bicycles are Beautiful,
Ian
 
slant said:
I get the sense that this is the beginning of a trend as many developing countries will begin to collapse under these intense pressures.
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I suspect it will also eventually affect developed countries. The threads of trades have knotted into messy tangles. I see it to be an after effect of elephant states fighting each other plus covid19. Interestingly, supposing we are entering post Covid19 eras, the typical economic boom seen from previous pandemics isn't happening to many nation states. It's a curious thing to watch. Unfortunately, I have no further in-depth knowledge to share about the matter to add substantially to this discussion.
 
Have known about it for weeks and there are signs of collapse in just about every country right now that we are win in weeks to months of something big taking place though usually such at least historically for the west is around late August through early November. Used to hang around in some circles were people talked about things like this going back decades and one scenario kept coming up is the big crash like no other. Think 30% of the economy gone almost overnight coupled to months of nose bleeding losses to where ultimately the dollar and the euro get demonetized in favor of a new global currency controlled by the central banks and the IMF. So what is happening in Sri Lanka now is that scenario playing out be it for just a small nation that will over the coming months will be a canary in a coal mine as other developing economies buckle under the pressure of inflation and cost of essentials particularly food and fuel. The first world will hold out till around the holiday season but should there be another major conflict then what there is still left of the good times the middle and upper classes have so enjoyed will be over. For example if a war broke out between Israel and Iran don't be surprised the gas prices will explode well over $10 landing in the ball park of somewhere between $15 to $20 a gallon.
 
It's striking to realize that the industrial revolution only happened in the last 100 years and it's only been the last 100 years where motor vehicles powered by gas have become such an integral part of our economy.

Our energy system is being challenged and I'm thinking, it's really because of our ability to utilize this energy that society has developed so much technology.

Seeing countries like Sri Lanka have to find alternative ways of getting around without gas and rationing gives you a preview of what would happen if we were no longer able to use oil for energy.

The argument is always: there's more oil to drill!

Without being able to consider what would happen if it did run out.
 
slant said:
...a preview of what would happen if we were no longer able to use oil for energy.
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The most noticeable effect, because of the end of petrol-powered industrial agriculture, would be mass starvation as fields fell fallow.

Cheers,
Ian
 
Also, this thread was not intended as fear mongering or to create anxiety or panic with anyone. I know there is a lot of that going on in the news media and although I know it is natural to experience emotions in reaction to these difficult circumstances, I am not making this thread to heighten those emotions.

I don't claim to be an economist or future teller to know what will happen, so any speculation on my part is only my best efforts.

I think this is relevant to drop here: this is the world bank groups report for 2022 assessing the current economic situation. It's actually a great read. I haven't finished reading it so I won't give my insights yet, I just found the data today, but this is great data driven info to drive the discussion around.

That's one of the frustrating things for me about discussions about news and world events is that so often we are driven by emotion or let the news influence what we think instead of looking at direct data and interpreting it for ourselves.
 

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slant said:
That's one of the frustrating things for me about discussions about news and world events is that so often we are driven by emotion or let the news influence what we think instead of looking at direct data and interpreting it for ourselves.
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If the world is going tits up, it's normal to freak out.
I agree with you though.
 
slant said:
That's one of the frustrating things for me about discussions about news and world events is that so often we are driven by emotion or let the news influence what we think instead of looking at direct data and interpreting it for ourselves.
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Agreed, but sometimes I think that even reasonable people are lost to those things because the conditions of their lives don’t allow the time for it, even if and when they have the willingness, the want, the ability, the well intention, and sharing-of-themself reason.

And, well, monkey see, monkey do. o_O

Reasonable discussions about news and world events are not rare, but they are uncommon. Also, they are unmarketable, and I’m sure you know what that implies.

Heh, in a culture where everything is monetized, and everything outside of your main gig is should be needs to be a side hustle, why would you spend time doing something for the rainbow itself, instead of the promise of a pot of gold at the end of it? :rolleyes:

I really appreciate you posting the material. Because:
  1. it’s a reasonable thing to do, and I value that
  2. Te reasons
  3. I need want a distraction
Cheers,
Ian
 
German economy minister warns of industry shutdown amid gas shortage

BERLIN, June 24 (Reuters) - Germany is heading for a gas shortage if Russian gas supplies remain as low as they are now, and certain industries would have to be shut down if there is not enough come winter, Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Der Spiegel magazine.

"Companies would have to stop production, lay off their workers, supply chains would collapse, people would go into debt to pay their heating bills, that people would become poorer," Habeck told Der Spiegel on Friday, saying it was part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategy to divide the country.
Habeck held out the prospect of further relief for companies and people affected by the lack of gas but warned that it would not be possible to absorb all the effects, reported Der Spiegel.

Consumers could see a doubling or tripling of their energy costs, which in some cases are already between 30% and 80% higher due to price increases from last fall, Klaus Mueller, the head of Germany's Bundesnetzagentur network regulator, told broadcaster ARD on Friday


Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...hutdown-amid-gas-shortage-spiegel-2022-06-24/
 

This video is pretty comprehensive, it goes through all of the countries that the world bank as identified as a risk for failure, and explains the specific reasons per each country that they are going to have difficulties.
 
Respect for linking Reuters. I need to acknowledge that, so I am doing so. That means a lot to me. I think it tells me something about who you are. Something I think good.

Fi and Te vibin’,
Ian
 
aeon said:
Respect for linking Reuters. I need to acknowledge that, so I am doing so. That means a lot to me. I think it tells me something about who you are. Something I think good.

Fi and Te vibin’,
Ian
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I tried to look up Reuters to understand the context of your remark but all that I saw is that Reuters has more of a center to lean-left political bias. I will admit that I don't spend a huge amount of time vetting sources, rather, I try to find multiple sources confirming information. So I'm curious to understand further information behind this observation you've made. I can tell it's a compliment but more details would probably help me understand what you meant lol
 
slant said:
I tried to look up Reuters to understand the context of your remark but all that I saw is that Reuters has more of a center to lean-left political bias. I will admit that I don't spend a huge amount of time vetting sources, rather, I try to find multiple sources confirming information. So I'm curious to understand further information behind this observation you've made. I can tell it's a compliment but more details would probably help me understand what you meant lol
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A number of years ago (more than I realize, likely), there was a meta-study of global news sources, with placement on a dual-axis graph, with the X, or left-right, indicative of degree of political bias relative to both the zeitgeist, and consensus modern/postmodern political definitions, and the Y, or north-south, indicative of degree of both provable, yet unintentional, and provable wilful misinformation.

So a map of a source’s position and efforts to demonstrable will to truthfulness, to the degree that can be known through proofs.

The three most truthful were also the three most centrist, in this order—Reuters, The Associated Press, and the BBC.

The Associated Press’s position has been judged to shift in the time since, given its partial ownership by Russian interests.

And of course, these days one’s declaration of position is vilified as an admission of agenda over truthfulness. No discussion is had now—just indictments, delivered with a most-bitter and insular self-righteous vitriol.

So all that to say, all other things being equal, Reuters could be trusted, to a greater degree, in the absence of further investigation, than any other source. Online, to offer it as a source marked the poster as likely reasonable, open to ideas, able to set aside their personal agenda in service of a greater understanding.

And so, worthy of respect. For being signal, not noise. For seeking a truth in possession of a primacy that transcended politics. For being willing to be first to walk into a pit of vipers, and say “I’ll play fair.”

It still means that to me, but I’m sure the world has changed, and for what it is worth, I’m old and crusty, lulz. :p I gave up any substantive political engagement online after 9/11, because it seemed like most others did. If you didn’t pick a side, you were (highly) suspect. Demonstrating fairness and reason, and being open to consider things, was seen as having been radicalized (in a certain way), or that one was on a very slippery slope that led to being so. And after 2007—the time of the combination of the arrival of both the smartphone, and the global economic downturn—the old internet was lost forever, for better or worse.

I remember that time long ago when an OP citing Reuters meant I had found another of my people. I already think that of you @slant, and/or that I hope to be one of those to you. So in seeing you do it, I gave myself reason to feel good because I told myself I was right about you—“see, she’s good people.”

Of course, it wasn’t any proof, just a cherry on top of an already indulgent sundae you’ve already served on the regular for quite some time now.

Cheers,
Ian
 
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