The coming technological singularity.

[BenW]

"...Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended..." - 1993 - Vernor Vinge, science fiction author, computer scientist, and retired San Diego State University professor of mathematics.

Links of interest in addition to the above article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain-computer_interface

Please share your views.

 

[Kavalan]

On a slightly more serious tone as long has we hold to Steve Wozniak's quote

Never trust a computer you can't throw out a window

We should be fine

 

[Duty]

Although we are on track to make computers with higher processing power then the human brain, there is still a lot of work we have to do to make algorithms that even closely resemble "intelligence."

Further, we already have the beginnings of neurological implants that do minor regulation of some brain functions. Theoretically, brain-computer interfaces will be very sophisticated by then.

Combine the fact that programming creativity into a computer is extremely difficult, maybe even impossible...and that computers may drastically enhance human processing power...it's easily seen that the "human age" may not be as short lived as predicted.

 

[Reon]

Although we are on track to make computers with higher processing power then the human brain, there is still a lot of work we have to do to make algorithms that even closely resemble "intelligence."

Further, we already have the beginnings of neurological implants that do minor regulation of some brain functions. Theoretically, brain-computer interfaces will be very sophisticated by then.

Combine the fact that programming creativity into a computer is extremely difficult, maybe even impossible...and that computers may drastically enhance human processing power...it's easily seen that the "human age" may not be as short lived as predicted.

All of this with a particular emphasis on the bold part. Many authors have made the mistake that based on the ever increasing amount of technological advances each year, we are going to have super computers and artificial intelligent in 30 years. That simply isn't going to happen because we have a long way with our abilities to make and manipulate computers.

On a random note, I find brain-computer interfaces to be oddly fascinating, but anyways...

 

[BenW]

Although we are on track to make computers with higher processing power then the human brain, there is still a lot of work we have to do to make algorithms that even closely resemble "intelligence."

Vinge covered this in his paper, actually.

Further, we already have the beginnings of neurological implants that do minor regulation of some brain functions. Theoretically, brain-computer interfaces will be very sophisticated by then.

Very soon, and arguably even already, these devices will surpass their current uses as aids for the disabled, and will have the potential to augment "normal" people.
It's all a mater of the economic feasibility.

Combine the fact that programming creativity into a computer is extremely difficult, maybe even impossible...and that computers may drastically enhance human processing power...it's easily seen that the "human age" may not be as short lived as predicted.

When referring to the end of the "human era", I don't really think he meant the end of the lineage of humans, per se. Just the beginning of the superhuman era, be that from the transcendence of man through self-augmentation or through the creation of a superhuman AI (or both simultaneously).

I think the self augmentation bit is much more likely.
And way the fuck cooler.

Once "direct" brain-computer interfaces become widespread, essentially everyone will be interconnected to each other via the internet 24/7... That alone increases intelligence quite a lot.

 

[BenW]

All of this with a particular emphasis on the bold part. Many authors have made the mistake that based on the ever increasing amount of technological advances each year, we are going to have super computers and artificial intelligent in 30 years. That simply isn't going to happen because we have a long way with our abilities to make and manipulate computers.

On a random note, I find brain-computer interfaces to be oddly fascinating, but anyways...

He wrote...

What about the '90s and the '00s and the '10s, as we slide toward the edge? How will the approach of the Singularity spread across the human world view? For a while yet, the general critics of machine sapience will have good press. After all, till we have hardware as powerful as a human brain it is probably foolish to think we'll be able to create human equivalent (or greater) intelligence. (There is the far-fetched possibility that we could make a human equivalent out of less powerful hardware, if we were willing to give up speed, if we were willing to settle for an artificial being who was literally slow [30]. But it's much more likely that devising the software will be a tricky process, involving lots of false starts and experimentation. If so, then the arrival of self-aware machines will not happen till after the development of hardware that is substantially more powerful than humans' natural equipment.)

 

[enfp can be shy]

It will happen, through nanotech. Direct artificial modelling of our own brains + extensions. I say nothing to worry about, because super-intelligent beings woudn't bother with these horrific dystopian scenarios. The mentality of those who create wars and desire power is not the most intelligent mentality among humanity. I hope you get that. Those are stupid, very very stupid, and primitive human reactions. Wise men know better, wise machines too.

 

[NeverAmI]

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