Are we heading into WW3? | INFJ Forum

Are we heading into WW3?

The_Mysterious_Stranger

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Aug 12, 2016
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After President Trump has ordered the missile strike on Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, is the US headed to war? What are the odds that this conflict escalates to a world war? This roughly compares to the assasination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary, which started World War I.

Iran wishes to protect its hierarchy, oil reserves, nuclear weapons. Same with China and Russia. Vladimir Putin is a power hungry narcissist who wishes to expand Russia into a similar Czar empire.

Allies/Axis powers in WWIII scenario:
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We've outright overthrown governments in the Middle East and it still hasn't been WWIII. I could see war with Iran in particular, maybe, if there's another attack on US soil, but otherwise nah.

With each of the previous two World Wars, there were reasons beyond aggression for them to spiral--in WWI's case, the fact that everyone had secret alliances with each other, and in WWII's, the fact that Nazi Germany's aggression was so effective.
 
Turkey is a more important ally for Russia than is Iran, because through them they can get year-round access to the world ocean via the Bosporus, which is currently how the US projects most of its hard power (that is, though its blue-water navy). However, because of the 'cold war' in the Middle east between Iran & Saudi Arabia, they can only have either Turkey or Iran since Turkey is angling to regain leadership of the Arab Muslim world. Thus I don't buy how your alliances break down (also why is Switzerland, &c. involved?)

Russia's belligerence and its consistent policy of national sovereignty is the beginning of a nascent alliance bloc against the US global order. Russia has acted with impunity in a few theaters now, against US strategic interests, and a global 'national sovereignty' movement roping in fringe states everywhere has a real chance of gathering momentum - Putin's strategy is smart, and it's effective. The Pax Americana is coming to an end, and right now the Yanks have the worst possible commander in chief, spouting protectionist economics coupled with weird aggression (a 'pull-push' dynamic) as if American wealth weren't based upon its political dominance.

What I would expect to see is the development of a key alliance between Russia and Turkey as a bipolar global order reasserts itself, which puts China in a weird outside position (which, actually, it wouldn't mind at all). Iranian retaliation might lead to localised hostilities, but it wouldn't affect the global power dynamic too much apart from sucking American resources and attention which the Russians will take advantage of.

As far as 'World War Three', no. The nuclear arsenals have not been dismantled and so major 'hostilities' will be conducted through proxy wars, economic aggression (already happening) and subtler maneuvers like interference in domestic affairs, &c. Another global cold war, though? Sure. It's already being fought.
 
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all Iran has to do is attack Israel, and it's on. . some one needs to stop trump before that happens, he's too stupid to see it
 
Nah
 
What I would expect to see is the development of a key alliance between Russia and Turkey as a bipolar global order reasserts itself, which puts China in a weird outside position (which, actually, it wouldn't mind at all)

Yup lolol